Sunday, April 24, 2022

I Don’t Believe Biden Will Run In 2024, and Neither Should You

I Don’t Believe Biden Will Run In 2024, and Neither Should You

AP Photo/Markus Schreiber

Joe Biden may not know where he is, who he is, or what year it is, but he wants us to believe that he will seek reelection in 2024.

In fact, Biden reportedly told Barack Obama during the past president’s recent visit to the White House that he is definitely running again and is looking forward to a Trump rematch.

“[Biden] wants to run and he’s clearly letting everyone know,” a source told The Hill. “I believe he thinks he’s the only one who can beat Trump. I don’t think he thinks there’s anyone in the Democratic party who can beat Trump and that’s the biggest factor.”

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I’m not sure where Biden got the idea that he’s capable of winning a second term. Certainly, there isn’t any polling to back that up. Biden’s approval ratings have been underwater since his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan. All efforts to boost his presidency haven’t worked, as Americans struggle with high gas prices and inflation. Neither his State of the Union address, his Supreme Court nomination, nor the end of the pandemic has changed his fortunes, and his approval ratings remain at a level that makes him vulnerable and not at all a sure thing. At this point, is there anything that will turn things around for him?

I don’t see it.

And not even Biden’s own party believes he’s actually going to run again.

Last year, the Washington Post reported that some Democrats are skeptical “of any public and private signals Biden and his team send about reelection, reasoning that there is an incentive for them to project interest in a second term, regardless of his true intent, to avoid weakening his standing.”

According to one Democrat who worked on Biden’s campaign and who spoke to the Post, no one in the party they’d spoken to believed that Biden would seek reelection.

Given that his polling hasn’t improved and, in fact, has gotten worse since the Post report, there’s no reason to believe that confidence in Biden has improved. In addition to his age being a significant liability for him, Biden’s victory in the Democratic primaries in 2020 was based on his perceived electability. That perception was based on the belief that Biden was a more moderate Democrat, someone who could bring Democrats and Republicans together and unite the country. He can no longer make this claim, and it’s hard to believe anyone fell for it the first time.

Biden has every reason to insist he plans to run so as not to diminish his standing — which is already on shaky ground — but he’s deluding himself if he actually thinks he can handle another campaign. It was easy for him in 2020 to spend most of the campaign hiding in his basement, but that won’t fly in 2024. The White House has a hard enough time containing Biden and his blunders when they can only hide him away in Delaware or Camp David for a weekend. Moreover, the rigors of an actual campaign aren’t compatible with his constant need for R&R out of the spotlight.

It may be possible that Biden honestly believes he’s up for another campaign, but even if he does believe it, I doubt his handlers do.

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