Thursday, October 29, 2026

There’s a Huge Reason Why You Shouldn't Believe the Midterm Polls

There’s a Huge Reason Why You Shouldn't Believe the Midterm Polls

There’s a Huge Reason Why You Shouldn't Believe the Midterm Polls
AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson

Democrats are acting as if Senate control is within their grasp, but John McLaughlin, a longtime pollster for President Donald Trump, says the surveys feeding that confidence are badly skewed.

With less than two weeks until Election Day, McLaughlin warned that the 2026 midterms are extremely close, and that some polls appear to deliberately shortchange Republicans by shrinking their share of the sample. Appearing Friday on Just the News, No Noise, he pointed to a New York poll in which just 22% of respondents were Republican. In the state's last gubernatorial race, Republicans made up 30% of the people who actually voted.

That's an eight-point hole for the GOP before a single question gets asked.

Asked how that happens, McLaughlin pointed the finger at the press.

"I think it's deliberate because a lot of the media that covers those polls has a bias," McLaughlin said.

He also had a word for the gatekeepers who decide which polls get treated as gospel and which get dismissed.

"Sometimes they don't put the liberal pollsters through the same kind of scrutiny," he added.

The consequences reach well beyond cable news narratives, too. "It affects donors," McLaughlin explained. A Republican donor who keeps hearing that a race is slipping away has every reason to hold onto his checkbook, and a self-fulfilling prophecy is a lot cheaper for Democrats than an actual campaign.

ICYMI: Still Think Talarico Will Flip Texas? You Might Want to Read This.

We've seen Republican support underestimated before, and McLaughlin walked through the track record. "Remember when there was a Hillary lock in 2016," he said. "Remember when there was going to be a [Joe] Biden blue wave in 2020, and remember [former] Vice President Kamala Harris at this point in time in 2024."

He sees the same pattern repeating now.

"So there's been, you know, a lot of bad calls, bad polling, and it seems like they're doubling down on the bad polls in this election cycle because when you get into the internals of the polls, they just don't make sense," McLaughlin continued. "They don't match up with the electorate, what they're going to look like in a midterm election."

Texas offers a perfect example.

In 2024, multiple polls showed Trump with a mere four-point lead over Kamala Harris in Texas. Trump ultimately won the state by 14 points. McLaughlin suggested the same thing could be happening in the Texas Senate race, where some polls show Texas State Rep. James Talarico (D-50th District) beating Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.

I, for one, am not buying the Texas flip narrative.

Talarico's polling lead deserves attention, but Texas is a Republican state, and even MS NOW’s Katy Tur is skeptical of the polls saying Talarico is ahead.

Even CNN's Harry Enten has admitted that polling averages in close Senate races have historically missed the final result by an average of 3.7 points, and since 2016, those misses have mostly favored Republicans. A GOP over-performance of that size would deliver a 52-48 Republican majority.

So who exactly are the polls missing? Pollster Frank Luntz says Republican voters are simply less willing to sit through surveys. If those voters keep hanging up on pollsters and then show up on Election Day anyway, the results could look very different from what the media is promising.

But let’s be clear: McLaughlin isn't predicting a cakewalk for either side.

"I've never seen it so close," he said. "There are eight Senate races that are toss-ups. [In] the House, there's over 70 seats in play. There's 17, at least pure toss-ups. So it really is a toss-up election."

In the end, all we know is that polls are snapshots built on assumptions, and those assumptions often turn out to be wrong. Republicans who tune out the doom and simply show up have the power to make them wrong again.

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2026/10/24/theres-a-huge-reason-why-you-shouldnt-believe-the-midterm-polls-n4958645?utm_source=pjmediavip&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl_pm

Lewiston, Maine, Proves Minnesota Isn’t the Only Somali Story

Lewiston, Maine, Proves Minnesota Isn’t the Only Somali Story

Lewiston, Maine, Proves Minnesota Isn’t the Only Somali Story
AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty

Most of the coverage we've seen on the influx of Somali immigration seems to point to Minnesota. But not so.

Take, as an example, this report from Fox News' Paul Steinhauser:

LEWISTON, Maine - A New England city transformed by an influx of refugees and immigrants is now grappling with a youth gun-violence crisis, as police report 35 gun-related incidents this year, 22 involving juveniles.

"I don’t feel safe. I fear for my life," Mohamed Muhumed, a Lewiston teenager, told Fox News Digital. "I saw someone get punched in the middle of the sidewalk over there. It’s crazy."

The city, Maine's second most populous city and home to a large population of refugees from Somali and other African nations, is experiencing a serious youth gun violence problem. Lewiston Police Chief Carly Conley called the gun violence "one of the most serious public safety challenges" facing the city.

Gee. Almost like Chicago, or maybe Minneapolis, but with lots more pine trees.

A little history is in order here, because Lewiston didn't get here overnight. About a quarter century ago, which by the way, was the last time I visited the place, refugees and secondary migrants started relocating to the old mill city on the Androscoggin River.  (Yeah, I had to triple-check the spelling on that one).

They came chasing cheap rent and quiet streets. The arrivals came fast. In 2002, then-Mayor Larry Raymond asked Somali leaders to discourage more people from coming, arguing that the rapid influx was straining city resources.

Well, anyone who has been watching things can guess how that went. The national press treated him like a man who'd kicked a puppy on live television. A mayor of a small, broke city said, in effect, "Please slow down so we can keep up," and the country's moral betters decided in typical kneejerk fashion, that the problem was the mayor being a racist.

Today, Lewiston has one of the highest per capita Muslim populations in the country, mostly Somali, along with refugees from other African nations. And Jon Fetherston of The Maine Wire, who has covered the violence extensively, told Fox that history proved Raymond right: too much, too fast.

Twenty-four years later, the city isn't arguing about school budgets. It's arguing about kids shooting kids, to say nothing about the crimes associated with that violence. Perhaps the cleanest link to that violence is drug trafficking. On September 22, police arrested a 13-year-old for allegedly firing a gun at Knox and Maple streets. The 16-year-old arrested alongside him was charged with drug trafficking, and both were already on probation. On October 22, police arrested a 17-year-old with cocaine base and more than $2,000 in suspected drug proceeds. He had previously been charged in shootings in March 2024, April 2024, and June 2025, and his attempted murder charge from a year ago was dropped after a court found him incompetent to stand trial. Chief Carly Conley has also said guns bought through straw purchases often get traded through the drug trade.

Conley says teens get guns by stealing them from careless owners or unlocked cars, and through straw buyers like girlfriends. The numbers bear that out. In one May crackdown, police seized seven guns, four of them stolen. May and June enforcement produced 11 guns, five stolen. Flock cameras have also turned up stolen weapons. Conley has publicly listed auto theft alongside juvenile gun violence and repeat offenders as the problems pushing the city’s public safety system to the brink.

Some of the shootings look like gang feuds rather than random gunfire, suggesting the crime problem is a larger one than the numbers alone suggest. After a May 30 shooting at a Pierce Street apartment house, three teens were charged with conspiracy to commit murder, and the intended victims told police they’d been warned beforehand that they might be shot. In early May, five juveniles were arrested after video showed them beating someone. Earlier this month, a 15-year-old was charged with attempted murder over a daytime downtown shooting.

The numbers are ugly enough on their own: 35 gun-related incidents this year, 22 of them involving juveniles. Fetherston says teenagers commit the majority of the violence, and that police keep arresting them, only to watch the courts turn them loose. The district attorney, by his account, is as frustrated as everybody else.

Rick LaChapelle, a former city council president now running for mayor as a Republican, described one young man who has been arrested something like five times for the same thing. He gets picked up, taken to the youth center, and released. Lather, rinse, repeat.

And repeat they do.

This thread runs through everything. So far this year, 22 juveniles have been involved in the 35 gun incidents, and 11 of them in at least two. One teen has had more than 70 (!) police contacts in two years. A city councilor put it bluntly: kids involved in a shooting on Friday are back at parties drinking, using drugs, and getting guns again by Tuesday.

The city's answer so far: $200,000 in extra police overtime and a polite request that the state rethink how it handles repeat violent juvenile offenders. Mayor Carl Sheline promised shooters that police "will find you," then added that parental involvement and accountability hold the key.

He's not wrong about the parents, of course. But police finding the shooters was never the problem. Police find them over and over. The system keeps putting them back on the street.

Now, honesty compels a point the usual suspects will throw at me anyway, so let me get there first. Fox itself notes that no official city or police data shows Somali residents as a group driving the violence. LaChapelle says that's who police keep arresting. A local teenager told Fox it's youth in general, not just Somali kids. And Ifraax Saciid, a Somali native who moved to Lewiston from Atlanta, says the root cause is poverty, and that she has watched the same thing unfold in Atlanta, Miami, Ohio, Kentucky, and Minnesota.

Fair enough. Let's take her at her word. Lewiston is poor. It was poor before the first refugee family ever arrived, a mill town whose mills had largely gone quiet.

Which is exactly the point. Somebody... possibly in the White House, a decade ago or so, decided that a struggling small city with a shrinking tax base made a fine destination for thousands of newcomers who needed housing, schools, translators, and services, then left the locals to sort out the bill. When the mayor objected, the same somebodies called him a bigot. If poverty breeds violence, then steering vulnerable families into a place that couldn't absorb them not compassion. It is at least malpractice. Further, it's quite probably intentional, in my view.

LaChapelle, a French Canadian whose own ancestors came to Lewiston as immigrants, put it plainly: America needs legal immigration, but it has to happen logically and legally. When his family arrived, he noted, nobody handed them a gravy train, and today the city still has people on public assistance decades later.

That's not nativism. (Why is nativism considered a bad thing?) That's a guy who knows exactly how assimilation worked for his own family, and can see it isn't working the same way now. And the reason: Local pols are not demanding it.

Lewiston has unsurprisingly also landed at the center of fraud scandals involving MaineCare, the state's joint federal-state Medicaid program. Saciid insists fraud happens everywhere, and with every skin color. True enough, as far as it goes. But it's hard to read about Lewiston without hearing an echo of Minneapolis, where the Feeding Our Future scheme bilked taxpayers out of some $250 million meant to feed hungry kids.

And that's the larger lesson here. Minnesota gets the headlines because it has the biggest Somali community and a congresswoman who can't seem to keep her own name and age straight, much less her loyalties.

Thing is, the pattern isn't Minnesota's, or Maine’s. It's Washington's. The federal government resettles refugees, secondary migration concentrates them wherever housing runs cheapest, and small cities such as Lewiston absorb the consequences with no say in the matter and no plan for what comes next.

It shows up in Columbus, Ohio. It shows up in suburban Seattle. And it shows up in a quiet corner of Maine where a teenage kid now tells a reporter he fears for his life on the sidewalk. And don’t even get me started on Dearborn. Something of a pattern taking hold here? Do you think anyone besides you and I will notice?

Back in 2002, Larry Raymond got hammered as a bigot for asking his city's newest residents to give Lewiston time to catch up. Turns out he wasn't a bigot. He could just count.

Oh, wait, that’s right…. Math is racist, right? I keep forgetting.

https://pjmedia.com/eric-florack/2026/10/24/lewiston-maine-proves-minnesota-isnt-the-only-somali-story-n4958644?utm_source=pjmediavip&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl_pm

The Great Replacement Chronicles: Somalifying the Land of 10,000 Lakes

The Great Replacement Chronicles: Somalifying the Land of 10,000 Lakes

The Great Replacement Chronicles: Somalifying the Land of 10,000 Lakes
AP Photo/Farah Abdi Warsameh, File

Archiving the “strange death of Europe,” as Douglas Murray put it, and the West more broadly, at the hands of the neoliberal technocracy.

Traveling through Minnesota some years ago on the way, as a young boy, to the boundary waters for a canoeing trip with my grandfather — with its miles of pristine landscape, down-home hospitality, lack of tribal warfare, and conspicuous absence of impromptu trash dumps on the side of the highway — I turned to him and said: “Goomps [that’s what I call him], Minnesota’s all right, but what would really make it sparkle is a few million more people in elaborate ethnic costumes and a deep-seated resentment of the white man. Diversity is our greatest strength.” 

He groaned, then sighed. “This is why I begged your mother not to send you to public school.” 

Related: Red Alert: WEF Takeover of American Education System Goes Live

‘Hundreds of millions’ handed out to Christian ‘charities’ to dump Somalis in Minnesota 

The irony of Christian charities importing people who are almost certain to burn down churches at some point when the Cultural Revolution Americana really gets going.

Via the New York Post (emphasis added):

Two church non-profits have taken in at least $62 million to build the Somali community in Minnesota — leading to the rise of Ilhan Omar and the fraud scandals that have gripped that state, The Post can reveal.

Catholic Charities and Lutheran Social Services were at the forefront of reshaping the frigid Land of 10,000 Lakes thanks to generous government contracts stemming back generations.

“This is a very big pile of government money and a whole bunch of different groups have come to get their own slice of it,” Parker Thayer, an immigration expert at the Washington, DC-based Capital Research Center, told The Post.

He added the total money pouring into Minneapolis resettlement programs alone is “in the hundreds of millions.”

He noted that since 2021, the US Conference of Catholic Bishops, the body overseeing Catholic Charities, has received $140 million in migrant resettlement contracts from the federal government.

“It is hurting the ability of these organizations to fundraise in arguably more important areas of their work. I imagine a lot of donors are being pushed away by something that is very reasonably viewed as highly controversial by a lot of people,” Thayer said.

Catholic Charities, for the record, was also extremely active on the southern border, trafficking humans into the United States through that route, as well during the Biden administration and before.

Related: Bill Gates Lobbying White House to Reverse USAID Cuts: Report 

Gaggle of Minnesota Boomer Karens learn Somali gibberish 

“You gotta be starting speaking Somali soon,” the migrant lauds the gathering of compliant Boomer Karens.

Absolutely horrifying stuff.

Disconcerting.

Harrowing.

Appalling.

Yet wholly on brand for the boomer progressive Karen.

Related: Denver Councilwoman Floats Whites-Only Business Tax

‘Get out the vote’ propaganda in Somali gibberish on local St. Cloud, Minnesota news 

I had previously concluded, having heard many tongues spanning many continents in my time, that Chinese was the most aesthetically displeasing language in all the world — like aggressive goats grunting.

However, I now understand that having Chinese occupy my #1 spot was merely on account of never having been subjected to Somali.

Want Cheaper Groceries? Stop Making Food More Expensive to Produce

Want Cheaper Groceries? Stop Making Food More Expensive to Produce

Want Cheaper Groceries? Stop Making Food More Expensive to Produce
AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough

Americans don’t need another politician telling them groceries are expensive. They’re the ones putting something back before heading to the checkout line. What they need and deserve is more than a sarcastic or simplistic answer. By the time dinner gets into your shopping cart, you’re paying for fertilizer, fuel, processing, packaging, refrigeration, and transportation. Government can make that trip easier — or add another expense at every stop.

The Trump administration has been removing some of those obstacles, giving businesses more room to produce and smaller companies more opportunities to compete. Those results deserve consideration in the affordability debate.

Recent polling found that 82 percent of Americans support cutting regulations on farmers and protecting farmland, while 78 percent agree that lowering energy costs can lower grocery costs. Voters seem to understand something that gets lost in political speeches: Making food more expensive to produce is a lousy way to make it cheaper to buy.

Start with fertilizer, which accounts for “33-45 percent of corn and wheat farmers’ operating costs.” Natural gas is a major input in nitrogen fertilizer production, also making fertilizer supply an energy policy issue. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins addressed farmers' concerns about energy and fertilizer costs back in March, noting that, "Because of the president's focus on energy, and energy independence, we're actually, in America, in a much better situation on the pricing of fertilizer than almost the rest of the world. So that's all really good news that you pivot to. But there's still so much to do. We gotta reshore our fertilizer back into America, we're going to be working on that, for the long term." Expanding production here at home would give farmers more options and make them less vulnerable to disruptions overseas.

Follow the food off the farm, and the same situation applies. Services provided by processors, manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers account for “a substantial portion of consumer food prices.” Somebody has to turn wheat into flour, package the bread, and deliver it. Meat needs processing and refrigeration. Trucks need diesel. Stores need electricity. And, there are labor costs all along the way.

Processing regulations also contribute to that bill. In March 2025, USDA moved to extend waivers allowing participating pork and poultry plants to maintain higher processing speeds and eliminated a requirement to submit what the department described as redundant worker-safety data while keeping food-safety standards in place. President Trump’s August call to expand farmers’ and ranchers’ processing options addressed a real question: What choices do producers have when they’re ready to sell? More independent processing capacity could give them another buyer and give customers another supplier.

Competition enforcement supplies another piece. In May, Trump’s Justice Department announced an Agri Stats settlement targeting exchanges of sensitive information among competing meat processors. DOJ alleged that the arrangement enabled coordinated production decisions and price increases. The settlement terms targeted nonpublic pricing reports and other information-sharing practices; Agri Stats denied wrongdoing.

Keeping productive farmland available matters, too. Taking land out of agricultural use leaves fewer acres available to buy or lease, potentially increasing the cost of starting or expanding a farm. Foreign control adds questions about who makes decisions affecting those resources. USDA reported 46 million acres of foreign-held agricultural land at the end of 2024, and at least some of that land was to be converted from farmland to manufacturing.

For voters deciding who deserves control of Washington, the grocery bill offers a useful test: Are politicians making it easier to produce food and compete for your business, or making you pay for their priorities? The Trump administration’s moves to cut regulatory costs and open up competition address expenses that accumulate long before food reaches the shelf. The high fuel prices we're currently experiencing are a result of dismantling the Islamist Iranian regime won't last forever, but the changes the administration is making in the regulatory state will continue to pay dividends for Americans at the grocery checkout.

https://redstate.com/jenvanlaar/2026/10/24/affordability-why-the-grocery-bill-is-really-a-supply-chain-story-n2208545?utm_source=rsmorningbriefingvip&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl