The Iran War’s Impact on the Battle for the U.S. House
It has been quite some time since we looked at the battle for the 2026 House, so its time for some more "strategery."
The conventional wisdom for the 2026 House elections now holds that the Democrats are strongly favored to win as the “out party." To hold the House, the GOP must avoid losing three or more (net) seats. The GOP currently has a majority of 217 Republicans plus 1 independent to 214 Democrats, with 2 GOP and 1 Democrat held seats vacant. Only twice in recent times has the majority party picked up seats in a midterm election, in 1998 and in 2002.
Of course, the House has a boom or bust cycle, and the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties in the House. And the GOP is NOT overexposed. During the “blue wave” of 2018, the GOP lost 41 seats and won only half of those seats back in 2020 and 2022. In 2024, thanks to some shenanigans in California, the Republicans lost 2 seats.
There is still no sign of another “blue wave.”
The GOP strategy to hold the House originally included: 1) push GOP redistricting; 2) minimize retirements; 3) spend big; 4) take primary challengers off the table; 5) raise gobs more money; 6) ramp up recruiting; and 7) push certain salient issues. But the minimizing of the retirements fell apart, and the GOP largely succeeded in preventing primary challengers and in recruiting. So, now, the GOP strategy is to: 1) push GOP redistricting; 2) raise and spend big; and 3) push certain salient issues.
So far, re-redistricting has been a big bust for the GOP. The GOP made progress in MO, NC, OH, and TX, but left seats on the table in IN, KS, and NE. In CA, the Democrats won a ballot measure to redistrict the lines put in place by the (fake) independent commission to stick it to the GOP. VA is facing its own special election on April 21, where the polling shows that the Democrats are narrowly up to re-redistrict – again overturning a (fake) independent commission’s lines – mostly because the Democrats have heavily outspent the GOP there (good job, guys). Both groups’ ads have been shockingly deceitful. Of course, the Republican controlled Virginia Supreme Court has worked overtime to dodge its responsibility to declare the whole Democrat scheme illegal. However, VA isn’t the end - FL is likely waiting until VA, and then may attempt to make up for any Democrat gain. Further, there is still an outside chance that the U.S. Supreme Court may rule on a redistricting case that would greatly damage Democrat prospects.
Overall, though, neither party is likely to gain or lose many (net) seats because of redistricting.
The Republicans have certainly raised huge amounts of money. Speaker Mike Johnson amassed $34 million in the first quarter, the largest election-year quarter ever by a GOP leader. Johnson has doled out $18 million to incumbents and nearly $30 million to the NRCC. Johnson’s 2025-26 cycle total is now more than $116 million raised. Meanwhile, President Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC has stockpiled more than $300 million. The RNC has raised $172.3 million to $145.8 million for the DNC, and the RNC has a huge cash-on-hand advantage, with $109 million in the bank compared to $16 million. The NRCC edged out the DCCC, $117.2 million versus $115.3 million last year, its best-ever off-election year haul other than 2021. In the competitive individual races, for every single quarter this campaign cycle, Republicans have dominated House Democrats. The allied House super PACs, however, showed a Democrat edge. Democrats’ House Majority PAC and House Majority Forward outraised their GOP counterparts, bringing in a combined $69 million in the first quarter — while the Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund and American Action Network raised $56.6 million. But there are other Republican oriented super PACs who expect to contribute tens of millions more.
Then there are the non-partisan Super PACs, whose partisan affect is unclear.
In 2025, Democrat organs spent over $60 million more than the GOP, and of course, the MSM is extremely biased towards the Democrats. The GOP will boost its spending as we get closer to the election.
The issues most important to the voters now all relate to the war in Iran. In addition to unease about the conflict itself, U.S. strikes there have led to occasional spikes in inflation, creating economic worries, and concerns that President Trump is not focused enough on the homefront. The Democrats and the MSM, driven crazy by their TDS, have actively been supporting the Iranian regime barbarians, and plan to double down on this. Only a few Democrats, including Sen. John Fetterman, and Rep. Jared Golden, have remained immune.
However, voter fears will ease as the war winds down with a U.S victory. The TDS fueled belief that the U.S. will lose to the Iranian regime is ludicrous propaganda.
This will leave the issue environment similar to what we had before the Iran war. With Republicans having some potential wedge issues they can still use against the Democrats. With the MAGA Inc. spending starting around Memorial Day, and the Republican Midterm Convention expected to occur sometime after Labor Day, possibly in Dallas, that is when things will really heat up.
But "We'll (Just Have to) See What Happens."
Notes:
- President Trump certainly needs to boost his approval ratings. Today, the RCP average has him at 41.5 percent approval, with 56.2 percent disapproval. He is again below the 43 percent that is a danger zone for presidents.
- It is unclear how President Trump’s status as a two-term-but-non-consecutive president will affect the normal vote patterns in House politics.
- In a reversal of the situation prior to 2016, the Republican vote is less likely to turn out in years where the president is not on the ballot. This means the GOP must find a way to motivate its weaker voters in 2026.
