Election Analyst Throws Much-Needed Cold Water on the Panican Vibes Ahead of the 2026 Election
by Matt Vespa
Everyone needs to stop being panicans. That’s the first rule. The second is to look toward the future because 2026 isn’t the last American election. The liberal media would like to think that any time Trump is in the mix, it is, but that’s not the case. Sadly, Trump is going to leave the Oval Office, despite my wanting him to stay for a third term, but you can’t always get what you want — an axiom liberals seldom understand. I bring all this up because the summer polls are out. They’re a little late this year, but hoo boy, do we have the same clown falling for the same games in the dog days of summer.
Seth Keshel has been firefighting, mainly from people who believe an early August poll is a final decision-maker on how these races will turn out. We face a tight midterm election, which is bad news for Democrats. With gerrymandering and ongoing branding and messaging issues for liberals, along with primaries that have propelled extreme candidates to the brink of office, the DSA and liberal America could see election night 2026 end with Republicans still in control of Congress.
Now, suppose things go slightly sideways. For starters, Sen. John Thune and the Senate Republicans are going to regret the day they didn’t grow a pair, nuke the filibuster, and pass the SAVE America Act. That’s over. Second, House Democrats aren’t going to impeach Trump; they’re going to investigate him — he’s the most investigated man in American presidential history — and then move to impeach him. Or they might just do the former, use process as the punishment, and then falter when pressed about why they aren’t doing anything about affordability, which they’re complaining about this cycle.
Keshel had a great post to dispel the ‘sky is falling’ vibe and emphasize the positive future for Republicans. If they regain the House, let Democrats think they’ve won the final victory because they haven’t. They’re going to lose the war. He referenced Ronald Reagan as an example, who many thought in 1983 was going to be a one-term president:
Simply put, when Americans voted for a political revolution and won, they didn’t vote for a 35% approval rating and they sure as hell didn’t come out in droves just so the Republican Party could get shellacked in the very next midterms. They were told about America’s decline, viewed that fateful quadrennial presidential election as a last ditch effort to reverse course peacefully in America, and responded with a popular vote win that featured Republican presidential victories in:
- Arizona
- Michigan
- Nevada
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
…and blowouts in Texas, Florida, and Ohio. This unrelenting base was ready to crawl over shattered glass and gas station bathrooms to vote for a man who became the oldest president of all time upon inauguration. That old man could have enjoyed his fame in retirement, but chose to step into a toxic arena and wear every label, accusation, and slander imaginable and even survived an assassin’s bullet.
[…]
My assumption is that you had no idea I was talking about President Ronald Reagan’s administration and the beating the Republicans received in 1982.
Yes, indeed - at the start of 1983, right after the Democrats cleaned House, President Reagan held a 35% approval rating.
[…]
…what if the Democrats win the midterms?
What if they do? I mean, 92 years of history show me that the president’s party loses seats in the U.S. House 20 out of 23 times since 1934. This year, believe it or not, affords one of the highest chances of president-party success since the dawn of the New Deal era, and it’s entirely owed to redistricting. Republicans aren’t going to win the Congressional popular vote, but they may be able to pull an inside straight
[…]
If Democrats win the House, which I would give them 60/40 odds to do today, then there will be pain. There will be committees formed and inquiries ordered, and crappy people assigned important positions of influence and power. They will drag their political enemies in front of cameras and excoriate them, and unlike Republicans, deal out legitimate consequences.
And in doing so, they will remind America why they can’t be trusted with power, why voter registration constantly moves against them, and exactly why they should forget the early struggles of the Trump 47 administration that aren’t really the fault of his policies. Economic ships take a long time to turn around, global enemies left unaddressed for 5 decades don’t simply leave power in a span of months, and the enemy wants to win, too.
Like we Christians say on Easter: Satan thought he had it won on Friday, but Sunday is coming.
The 2030 census is coming. The emergence of the DSA is already coming. The truth will win out, but only if the people who desire to see it in real, living color in our lives get off their dead asses, log off the internet, and get busy building the relationships that matter and pushing the good people they know to take over school boards, counties, and beyond.
He adds that GOP voter registration dumps are outstanding in a year that should be a blue wave for Democrats, though the instant access to information has led to the good, the bad, and the very ugly (fake news) getting digested. We’ve all fallen victim to it at some point. It’s exacerbated by a network of paid influencers who farm engagement and, well, it spreads faster than COVID. Guys, this is a marathon, not a sprint.
You know a lot of this already.
Keshel also explored why Trump valued the late Lindsey Graham despite major policy disagreements, especially on immigration. It’s because Graham, as we’ve learned from his passing, got things done. He was a vital link between the Senate GOP and the White House, had the gift of gab that at least gave him a chance at bipartisan cooperation, particularly on procedural hurdles, and kept many pieces of legislation from falling apart. Keshel mentioned budgets — Graham prevented the big, beautiful bill from going off the rails. He was irreplaceable, at least for now. Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) has done some great behind-the-scenes work, but she still has a long way to go before she reaches Graham’s levels of efficiency and experience. Not a knock on her, but she’s young. His point: like the late Mr. Graham, there is only one Trump. Who will replace him? Well, for now, Keshel thinks it should be us, at the very least, doing small things to “provide aid to those who stand for what is right.”
Oh, man, how the Left will hate that sort of political dispersion.
He ended his post noting that Reagan won in 1984 by a landslide, with the GOP winning 89 of 100 states in both the ’84 and ’88 cycles. We’re the only party to achieve a three-peat for the White House. Things bounce back, opinions change, which is why there are no permanent victories in our system of government. Demography is not destiny. Yes, the golden age is here, and the future is still bright. And while not entirely the cause of it, the Democrats’ lurch toward authoritarian leftism, driven mainly by Trump and shifts in their base, aligns with a timeline that shows a last gasp, if you will, of their relevance in national elections for a long time. In a last-gasp situation, politicos will do almost anything to hold onto power. But that could change. For now, Democrats seem to be allowing hammers and sickles into the tent. These people have an agenda that’s shielded by affordability talking points, but after that, it’s crackpot city. It’s unsustainable; it’s short-term.
That is not the way.
