Tuesday, May 3, 2022




Today’s doom scroll for Democrats comes courtesy of the NPR/PBS Marist Poll, which was out in the field last week with a survey of 1,377 voters. And it provides yet more indicators that Democrats are fast losing Latinos, which, if it comes to pass and becomes a real realignment of voting preferences, is, in the words of Ruy Teixiera, “an extinction level event for the Democratic Party.”

First, let’s look at the ethnic breakdown on Biden’s job approval rating (the columns are approve/disapprove/no opinion):

On the question of Biden’s handling of the economy, Latinos are more negative than whites (thought it is within the margin of error, so basically a tie):

On the question of voting for Democratic (left column) or Republican (right column) in the mid-term election, once again Latinos are slightly more Republican than white voters right now:

(Note: when the white vote is divided between college-educated and non-college, guess how it comes out?)

Matt Yglesias, a recent defector from the left,  remarks: “Dems polling better with white college grads than with Hispanics should prompt some thinking but I am pessimistic that it will.”

Chaser: It really has to hurt that NPR and PBS are affiliated with this poll. And, given NPR’s imprimatur, what’s what “Latino”? Pretty sure NPR’s style guide insists that we all use “Latinx.”

P.S. The Republican lead in the “generic ballot” question is the highest ever recorded in the Marist poll.


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