IN 2024 ELECTION, POLL
If Democrats aren’t pushing the panic button, they should be. Rasmussen’s latest has Trump ahead of Biden by ten points:
Despite being on trial in New York City, former President Donald Trump has widened his lead over President Joe Biden during the past month.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, in a three-way contest between Biden, Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose Trump, 36% would vote for Biden and nine percent (9%) would vote for Kennedy.
Another 4% say they would vote for someone else, and 4% are undecided. Those numbers can’t give Biden much comfort. The “someone elses” in the race are leftists who no doubt will draw some votes, and I don’t think 4% is a high number for undecideds at this stage. Nor are RFK’s numbers high enough to give a lot of hope. If we assume that half of Kennedy’s voters will fall away between now and the election, a reasonable guess, I think, that leaves 4-5% to flop one way or the other. Biden’s problem is that they won’t all come his way. On the contrary, a good number of voters are interested in Kennedy because they are disgusted with Biden. So I doubt that Biden will net more than a point or two as Kennedy falls back.
If we assume that most voters who are undecided on the eve of an election vote against the incumbent, as pollsters tell us, the picture gets even bleaker.
Of course, events between now and November will play a major role. But Biden’s poor numbers reflect the majority’s judgment that his term has been a failure. That is a hard burden to overcome.
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