Deeper Looker at Polls Show Biden is in Deep Trouble
Why, after months of refusing to agree to debate his GOP opponent, would Joe Biden challenge Donald Trump to debate? To change the subject and offer a distraction, that’s why.
Since they were released on Monday, these new polls have captured the attention of the political world and reinforced a sense of dread among many Democrats. Conducted by The New York Times, Sienna College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer, they show former President Trump leading Biden in five of six crucial battleground states – and by large margins. That’s not surprising. Biden has been a terrible president.
Among registered voters, Trump leads Biden by 47-44% in Pennsylvania; by 49-42% in Michigan; by 49-42% in Arizona; by 49-39% in Georgia; and by 50-38% in Nevada. Only in Wisconsin does Biden lead Trump, by 47-45%, within the poll’s margin of error.
Among likely voters, the contest is a bit closer, but Trump still leads in five of the six battleground states tested: Trump leads Biden by 48-45% in Pennsylvania; by 49-43% in Arizona; by 50-41% in Georgia; by 51-38% in Nevada; and by 47-46% in Wisconsin. In Michigan, Biden leads among likely voters by 47-46%.
The polls also tested multicandidate fields, with independent or third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.; Jill Stein; Cornel West; and (Libertarian Party candidate) Lars Mapstead added. In those potential matchups, Trump leads Biden by 40-36% in Pennsylvania; by 42-33% in Arizona; by 39-31% in Georgia; by 41-27% in Nevada; and by 38-36% in Michigan. In Wisconsin, it’s tied at 38-38% in a multicandidate field.
This does not bode well for Biden. As the Times points out, “The findings are mostly unchanged since the last series of Times/Sienna polls in battleground states in November.” The Times helpfully explains: “Since then, the stock market has gained 25 percent, Mr. Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan has started, and the Biden campaign has unleashed tens of millions of dollars in advertisements across the battleground states.”
Biden’s campaign hasn’t been able to move the needle, and is trailing badly in the battleground states tested, because he’s been a terrible president. When we look deeper into the polls, we see the evidence.
First, the polls also tested the Senate contests in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In each of the four contests tested, the Democrat candidate is leading the GOP candidate. In each case, the Democrat candidate is also running ahead of Biden on the ticket. So it’s not a problem with the Democrat Party brand, it’s a problem with Biden himself.
Second, Biden’s job approval number is dismal, and that spells trouble with a capital “T” for a president running for reelection. A review of Gallup’s archived polling data shows that a president’s job approval rating is a good predictor of his chances for reelection. Since World War II, only two presidents have had a job approval rating below 40 percent in June of the reelection campaign year – Jimmy Carter, at 32% in June of 1980, and George H.W. Bush, at 37% in June of 1992. Not surprisingly, both lost their reelection campaigns. We’re not in June yet, but we’re very close.
The new polls show Biden upside down on the job approval question. Averaged across the six states tested, 36% approve of his handling of the job (with 15% strongly approving, and 21% somewhat approving), while 61% disapprove (with 15% somewhat disapproving, and a whopping 46% strongly disapproving). In Arizona, it’s 35-62% approve-disapprove; in Georgia, 33-61%; in Michigan, 38-59%; in Nevada, 33-64%; in Pennsylvania, 38-60%; and in Wisconsin, 41-57%.
Third, the issues are cutting against Biden. Asked “What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November?” the top answer is the economy, with an average of 21% across the six states listing it first, followed by immigration (at an average 12% across the six states), abortion (at an average 11% across the six states), and inflation and the cost of living (at an average 7% across the six states).
Asked to think about the nation’s economy and then rate economic conditions today, an average of 21% across the six states responded “excellent” or “good,” while an average of 27% said “only fair” and a whopping 51% said “poor.”
It’s no wonder Trump is leading Biden, and it’s no wonder Biden is desperate for something to try to distract attention from the latest polls confirming that. Every time I leave my house to fill up my gas tank or go grocery shopping, I’m whacked by the higher prices hitting me because of Biden’s inflation. I don’t live anywhere near the border, but I see illegal immigrants just about everywhere I go, because Biden’s failure to enforce the law and fix the crisis he created at the southern border has turned every state into a border state. I worry about crime in a way I didn’t have to before, and I worry that the election could be corrupted by illegal votes cast by thousands, or tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of the illegal aliens Biden has allowed into the country. When I look abroad, I see a world engulfed in flames, at least in part because America’s allies and adversaries no longer look to the United States as a source of strength and stability.
That’s why the country is going to vote to remove Biden from office.
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