Sunday, October 23, 2022

It's starting to turn toxic out there for Democrats

It's starting to turn toxic out there for Democrats

Just days before midterms, it's starting to turn toxic out there for Democrats.

After a certain amount of blather about the red wave vanishing, it's back, with a vengeance, polls say, and Democrats look powerless to stop it.

Start with the obvious here: President Trump is the most popular politician in the country. 

According to Fox News, citing a New York Times poll:

More voters say they would vote for former President Trump than President Biden if the election were held today, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College.

The poll of likely voters also showed Biden's approval rating slipping below 40% for the first time since his boost in August. The NYT and Siena polled 792 registered voters in both English and Spanish over cellphones and landlines from October 9-12, reporting a margin of error of 4%. It found that the vast majority of Americans, 64%, believe the country is on the wrong track.

Trump narrowly beat out Biden in the election question, sporting 45% support to Biden's 44%. Trump's lead in that poll came despite 52% of the electorate saying they viewed him somewhat or very unfavorably.

 That would be the same Trump who was raided by the FBI, saw tax evasion lawsuits thrown at him by the very determined and nakedly partisan New York attorney general, and was accused again and again of instigating the January 6 riots by the openly partisan, Democrat-handpicked January 6 commission.  He was the subject of many negative tell-all books as well.  All of these supposed calamities were bids to smear, discredit, and disqualify Trump from running for office.

Instead, Trump's polling numbers grew.  The more they throw at him, the more the voters want him.  That's toxic for Democrats, who have gone increasingly rabid as Trump's popularity soars.

Meanwhile, something happened on or around the Oct. 9 point: Republicans are once again leading in all polls on the generic ballot question, with FiveThirtyEight trying to spin it as a slight Democrat advantage, having included old polls and new polls, all lumped together.  The chart shown, though, tells another story.  On or about Oct. 9, voters started swinging Republican.  Pollsters of every stripe report this, with no outliers.  One showed Republicans at a seven-point advantage on a generic ballot.  See the chart here.

It gets worse for Democrats when the specifics are looked at.

Nearly all Democrat candidates have fallen behind in polling in tightly contested races for the House, Senate, and state offices.  Something shifted.  Political operative Dick Morris writes:

The Republican surge is animated by decisive debate victories on Friday in three key races: Georgia (Senate), Michigan (Governor), and Wisconsin (Governor). Georgia had been trending Democrat before the debate under the weight of Hershel Walker's scandals, but likely no more.

Tudor Dixon, the Republican candidate for Governor of Michigan, seemed like a hopeless case, but now, on the strength of a decisive win in her debate with incumbent Democrat Gretchen Whitmer the race seems winnable. The Republican Governor's Association, after waiting to commit, now is pumping millions into her campaign. Responding to Dixon's surge, former president Obama has announced plans to campaign against her in Michigan.

And, in Wisconsin, Republican Tim Michaels clearly defeated a largely passive and obviously aging Democratic governor Tony Evers.

Walker was supposed to lose the debate because, as a football hero, he's not necessarily very articulate. Coming up against an experienced pastor, Senator Raphael Warnock's chances seemed dim. But Walker surprised everyone with a strong performance. Whatever the issue he pivoted to bring it back to inflation and Joe Biden. Surprisingly, on abortion he indicated new flexibility and backed it in cases of rape or a danger to the life of the mother. But, above all he seemed to have mastered his new trade of politics and was able to spar with the best of them.

The most important debate will come next week in Pennsylvania Senate race between Dr. Oz and stroke-impaired John Fetterman on October 25th. Fetterman won't release his medical records and recent on camera interviews indicate that he mispronounces words and cannot easily understand what he hears unless it is printed out in front of him.

Whatever his medical prognosis, he cannot recover from his radical positions on pardoning and releasing one in three Pennsylvania prison inmates and on defunding the police.

Other than the Oz-Fetterman race, we now lead in all contests for seats currently held by the Republicans. North Carolina is close but Ted Budd holds a consistent lead. And, despite a less than stellar debate performance, JD Vance is ahead in Ohio.

This explains a lot about why Democrats look at the prospect of doing debates with Republicans like how a 1940s kid looks at a swig of castor oil.  Every debate has tanked the Democrat in the polls.

Democrats not only are running from debates, but running from their party leader, Joe Biden.  Most won't let Biden near their campaigns for fear of his failures rubbing off on them with voters.  Biden has begun dispatching Jill Biden and other Democrats, including Cabinet members to act as surrogates on campaign stops to stand in his stead.

A new Fox News poll yesterday revealed that 33% of all voters say they would vote for Joe Biden again if the election were held today — and 54% won't.

Morris notes that Biden was last seen campaigning not in a swing state, where presidents historically campaign to swing things their party's way, but in deep blue Oregon for a Democrat candidate, Tina Kotek, who is running for governor.  Oregon has not elected a Republican governor since 1982, and even there, Kotek is in trouble, and Biden is trying to save her bacon. 

That's pathetic. 

We have Obama urging Democrats to scrap wokeism and Susan Sarandon denouncing the crime and lawlessness of Los Angeles.  Democrats are yelling about "democracy" and abortion, while voters are looking for answers on inflation, the economy, the lunacy engulfing education, soaring crime, and open borders.

It's a toxic mess for Democrats, and now it's getting more toxic. 

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of crazed wokesters.  One can only hope that the red wave coming on is very, very big.

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