Sunday, July 24, 2022

Don't Get Taken in by NYT Poll: Red Wave Will Dash Dems' Dreams for Midterms

Don't Get Taken in by NYT Poll: Red Wave Will Dash Dems' Dreams for Midterms

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Some on the left have been pushing a recent NY Times poll, suggesting that Democrats might have a chance in the midterms, with allegedly a one-percent preference edge for the Democrats over Republicans, 41 percent to 40 percent with registered voters. That got some attention with some claiming that indicated a move to the Democrats. But even that wasn’t quite as accurate as it could be, since the likely voter count showed a preference of one point for the Republicans, according to my colleague Streiff.

What did the media concentrate on? The registered voter count, when it’s the likely voter count that is the more accurate take generally. But liberal media needed something to help cheer the Democrats with, so they made of it what they could.

But now, the latest Fox poll on the matter shows how baseless that claim is. The Fox poll shows that the Republicans are leading by three points, the seventh straight poll showing the Republicans still leading the Democrats in the Congressional predictions. According to the Fox News models, that advantage would translate to a GOP win with a gain of 23 seats.

“A 20-plus seat gain would be massive for the Republicans in an era where bipartisan gerrymandering has drastically reduced the number of competitive seats,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw. “It would be tantamount to the 1994 midterms when Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America helped the GOP roll up a 54-seat gain.” Shaw conducts the Fox News survey with Democratic counterpart Chris Anderson.

The generic ballot tends to overstate the Democrats’ chances of winning individual House races because it comes from a survey of registered voters across the country, and not from a series of individual Congressional district surveys. Because more districts have been drawn to be overwhelmingly Democratic than overwhelmingly Republican, the Democrats need a higher generic ballot number to expect to win more actual seats.

The poll also indicates that Americans disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing on virtually every issue by big numbers: 73 percent disapprove on inflation, 68 percent on the economy, 61 percent on immigration, 59 percent on guns, 57 percent on energy policy, and 55 percent on handling Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

And a 52% majority thinks it will be worse next year. This is the first time in intermittent surveys going back to 1998 that over half have felt the economy will be worse a year from now.

Meanwhile, 52% have changed their summer travel plans because of gas prices, 70% have had to cut back on other spending to afford necessities, and 75% say inflation has caused them financial hardship — up from 67% in December.

Two figures are likely to doom the Democrats’ chances in the midterms if the numbers hold: 93 percent are extremely worried about rising prices and 70 percent of independents disapprove of the job that Biden is doing–and that is going to be a killer when it comes to the midterms if that holds.

The zinger for Joe Biden? This poll also backs up other polls that most voters don’t want Joe Biden to run again, with only 27 percent in favor and 71 percent against. So, this is likely to set Joe Biden off again when they ask him about this poll.

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