But then, last year, the pundits forgot about the Tea Party movement and started rhapsodizing the Occupy Wall Street movement. The Tea Party was old news -- now it was the Occupiers who were going to change American politics.
That ended once journalists and pundits realized that the scruffy, anarchic -- and often criminal -- Occupy protesters were alienating voters and not accomplishing much. And I wrote here that Occupy Wall Street Gets The Ink, Tea Party Gets The Voters. And that's pretty much how it's turned out.
Occupy fizzled -- the final blow came when Andrew Breitbart fearlessly waded into a crowd of Occupiers who were trying to take over a conservative blog conference, and shouted "Stop raping people, you freaks!" Since they were freaks, and Occupiers had been raping people in embarrassing numbers, there wasn't much to say in response.
Meanwhile, the Tea Party went on being unglamorous but effective. Tea Party members got on state and local party committees. Tea Party organizers registered new voters and pushed for insurgent candidates to run. In 2010, Utah Sen. Bob Bennett was knocked out at the party caucus stage.
Some critics thought that was the high-water mark for Tea Party influence, but this year Orrin Hatch, despite being forewarned and calling in all the favors that a multidecade senator has to call in, was forced into a primary, having failed to clinch re-nomination at convention. Tea Party opponent Richard Lugar was knocked out -- beaten like a drum, really -- in an Indiana Senate primary. And in Texas, establishment Senate candidate David Dewhurst has been forced into a runoff with Tea Party insurgent Ted Cruz.
This has made some people unhappy. Mostly, those people are members of the Republican establishment, who were happy with things they way they were. The rise of a new, empowered voting bloc -- back in February of 2010 I called it a new Great Awakening in American politics -- threatens to shake things up. These are people who actually believe in the things Republican officeholders claim to support, like small government, fiscal responsibility, and constitutional limits on government programs.
The Tea Party movement has come a long way. But the upending of incumbents in what by all rights should have been safe primaries demonstrates that it hasn't lost momentum yet. So what's next?
Well, between now and November, the emphasis will shift from defeating squishy Republicans to defeating Barack Obama -- and to making sure that the people Tea Partiers backed in the primaries get elected to office. But that's pretty obvious. The real question is what Tea Partiers will do after November.
If Barack Obama wins, the answer is probably more of the same. But what if he loses, which is looking increasingly possible?
If Barack Obama loses, some Tea Partiers will be tempted to declare victory and go home. The Tea Party formed in response to Obama's overreach on spending and intrusive government; it was a sort of allergic reaction on the part of the body politic. With Obama gone, that may go away.
But I'm betting that it won't. Because removing Obama, while helpful, doesn't really solve the problem. Both parties spend too much, tax too much, and regulate too much. Obama just turned the machinery of government up to 11.
Even with Obama gone, there will be a major role for the Tea Party movement. Republicans will need to have their feet held to the fire. With a budget crisis pretty much inevitable no matter what happens in November, small-government fiscal-responsibility types will still have a lot to do. And the Tea Party takeover of local and state Republican machinery will continue.
But there's another reason why the Tea Party movement won't go away in November: As millions of Americans were drawn into politics for the first time, many of them learned something important: It's fun. It's fun to elect candidates, fun to win elections -- fun even to lose, sometimes, compared to staying home and shouting at the TV. Once involved in politics, people tend to stick around. I think that'll happen here, too.
Establishment types, beware.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2012/05/tea-party-i-told-you-so/676326
That ended once journalists and pundits realized that the scruffy, anarchic -- and often criminal -- Occupy protesters were alienating voters and not accomplishing much. And I wrote here that Occupy Wall Street Gets The Ink, Tea Party Gets The Voters. And that's pretty much how it's turned out.
Occupy fizzled -- the final blow came when Andrew Breitbart fearlessly waded into a crowd of Occupiers who were trying to take over a conservative blog conference, and shouted "Stop raping people, you freaks!" Since they were freaks, and Occupiers had been raping people in embarrassing numbers, there wasn't much to say in response.
Meanwhile, the Tea Party went on being unglamorous but effective. Tea Party members got on state and local party committees. Tea Party organizers registered new voters and pushed for insurgent candidates to run. In 2010, Utah Sen. Bob Bennett was knocked out at the party caucus stage.
Some critics thought that was the high-water mark for Tea Party influence, but this year Orrin Hatch, despite being forewarned and calling in all the favors that a multidecade senator has to call in, was forced into a primary, having failed to clinch re-nomination at convention. Tea Party opponent Richard Lugar was knocked out -- beaten like a drum, really -- in an Indiana Senate primary. And in Texas, establishment Senate candidate David Dewhurst has been forced into a runoff with Tea Party insurgent Ted Cruz.
This has made some people unhappy. Mostly, those people are members of the Republican establishment, who were happy with things they way they were. The rise of a new, empowered voting bloc -- back in February of 2010 I called it a new Great Awakening in American politics -- threatens to shake things up. These are people who actually believe in the things Republican officeholders claim to support, like small government, fiscal responsibility, and constitutional limits on government programs.
The Tea Party movement has come a long way. But the upending of incumbents in what by all rights should have been safe primaries demonstrates that it hasn't lost momentum yet. So what's next?
Well, between now and November, the emphasis will shift from defeating squishy Republicans to defeating Barack Obama -- and to making sure that the people Tea Partiers backed in the primaries get elected to office. But that's pretty obvious. The real question is what Tea Partiers will do after November.
If Barack Obama wins, the answer is probably more of the same. But what if he loses, which is looking increasingly possible?
If Barack Obama loses, some Tea Partiers will be tempted to declare victory and go home. The Tea Party formed in response to Obama's overreach on spending and intrusive government; it was a sort of allergic reaction on the part of the body politic. With Obama gone, that may go away.
But I'm betting that it won't. Because removing Obama, while helpful, doesn't really solve the problem. Both parties spend too much, tax too much, and regulate too much. Obama just turned the machinery of government up to 11.
Even with Obama gone, there will be a major role for the Tea Party movement. Republicans will need to have their feet held to the fire. With a budget crisis pretty much inevitable no matter what happens in November, small-government fiscal-responsibility types will still have a lot to do. And the Tea Party takeover of local and state Republican machinery will continue.
But there's another reason why the Tea Party movement won't go away in November: As millions of Americans were drawn into politics for the first time, many of them learned something important: It's fun. It's fun to elect candidates, fun to win elections -- fun even to lose, sometimes, compared to staying home and shouting at the TV. Once involved in politics, people tend to stick around. I think that'll happen here, too.
Establishment types, beware.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/2012/05/tea-party-i-told-you-so/676326
No comments:
Post a Comment