Friday, June 22, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote, while President Obama earns 43%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and another three percent (3%) are undecided.
The president picks up support from just 35% of white voters overall. That’s eight points below the 43% of the white vote he won in 2008. Among white Democrats, 17% currently plan to vote for Romney.
Just 33% now believe the president is doing a good or excellent job when it comes to the economy. That’s down from 41% at the beginning of May.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). See tracking history.
With speculation about Romney's vice presidential nominee running high, Scott Rasmussen contends in his latest weekly syndicated newspaper column that “more important than the process of selecting the nominee will be the way the choice is rolled out to the public.” Most Americans, he explains, "will learn all they know about the new name on the ticket during the week the candidate is introduced.”
Forty-five percent (45%) believe that America’s best days have come and gone. Just 37% believe they are in the future.
New polling shows the president ahead by five in the swing state of New Hampshire. Obama also leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Romney leads in North Carolina and Missouri. The race is a toss-up in Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Colorado.
(Job Approval Data Below)
A president’s Job Approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s Job Approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 44% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. That matches the president’s lowest approval rating of 2012. Fifty-four percent (54%) at least somewhat disapprove (see trends).
Just 30% believe the United States is generally heading in the right direction. Only 16% believe today’s children will be better off than their parents.
To help the economy, 24% believe the government should increase spending, while 66% think spending cuts are a better remedy.
Eighty-one percent (81%) believe members of Congress listen more to party bosses in Washington than they do to voters. Most (57%) believe legislators routinely get reelected because the process is rigged to benefit incumbents.
If you’d like Scott Rasmussen to speak to your organization, meeting, or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers. The Wall Street Journal has called him “America’s leading insurgent pollster,” and The Washington Post says Scott is a “driving force in American politics.”
To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports also compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.
(Approval Index data below)
Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 23% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-five percent (45%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -22 (see trends).
During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company whose work is followed by millions on a wide variety of platforms. We regularly release our results at RasmussenReports.com, through a daily email newsletter, a nationally syndicated radio news service, an online video service and a weekly newspaper column distributed by Creators Syndicate. A nationally syndicated TV show--What America Thinks --is scheduled for launch in September 2012.
Our firm has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."
During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.
Like all organizations that conduct public opinion polls, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. Obama's numbers are almost always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote.
Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.7% Republicans, 33.4% Democrats, and 30.8% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
No comments:
Post a Comment