IN CORONAVIRUS
As Paul noted earlier, new coronavirus cases are plummeting in the U.S. This chart from the CDC shows the trend graphically:
Could cases spike again? The only real limit on the spread of covid is herd immunity (or, in the more politically correct formula, “population immunity”). When a majority (maybe a large majority) of the population has acquired immunity either by contracting the disease or by being vaccinated, the virus will die down and eventually die out. How close are we to that point?
In the Wall Street Journal, Dr. Marty Makary of Johns Hopkins argues that “We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April.”
Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?
In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.
Dr. Makary argues that other data suggest that as many as two-thirds of Americans have already had the coronavirus, and “the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity.”
If the coronavirus is indeed disappearing by April, it will be interesting to see the reaction of the authorities. One would think that good news about the epidemic will be welcome, and things will rapidly return to normal. But that may not be what happens. The proto-fascists–you know the governors I mean–have gloried in their ability to use “emergency” powers to bully their fellow citizens. I suspect they will not give up those powers willingly. And the sheeplike behavior of other institutions, colleges and universities for instance, suggests that they too have enjoyed the opportunity to impose conformity. So we may have to fight for our freedom to live normal lives.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/02/is-covid-almost-over.php
NEW CORONAVIRUS CASES PLUMMET IN U.S. AND THE UK
IN CORONAVIRUS, JOE BIDEN, TRUMP ADMNINISTRATION
The number of new coronavirus cases is in steep decline, both in the U.S. and the UK. Here at home, the number of new reported cases per day is below 100,000 — down from almost three times that many early in the year. The daily number of new cases is about what it was in mid-to-late October, before the weather got cold. (All numbers cited are from Worldometer.)
Unfortunately, the number of deaths per day attributed to the virus hasn’t declined as sharply. New deaths are averaging a little below 3,000, down from a peak of more than 4,000 in mid-January. The current number is comparable to that of mid-November. Deaths, of course, are a lagging indicator compared to new infections.
The picture in the UK, which got off to a fast start on vaccinations, is similar. New cases are down quite dramatically — from a peak of around 60,000 per day early in the year to less than 15,000 per day now. As in the U.S., the daily number of new cases is about at October levels.
Deaths per day attributed to the virus are also way down in the UK. In mid-January, the UK was reporting more than 1,500 deaths most days. Now, the number is around 500.
Much of the rest of Europe got off to a slow start on vaccinations and continues to lag. What do their new case and deaths per day numbers look like?
In France, the number of new cases per day is around 25,000, and has been throughout the new year. The same is true of deaths attributed to the virus. That number has held steady at around 500 all year.
The east of France has been plagued by new variants of the virus that are thought to be more contagious than the original version. However, this is also true in the UK. Yet, new cases have declined dramatically there.
In Italy there has been some decline in new cases and deaths per day since the start of the new year, but the decreases have not been sharp (from around 20,000 cases to around 15,000 and from around 500 to 400 deaths). The same is basically true of Belgium and the Netherlands. Spain, though, has seen fairly significant declines.
It looks, then, like the ability of Donald Trump and Boris Johnson to get quick approval and distribution of vaccines is making a big difference. It is saving lives. And, of course, Trump deserves credit for facilitating the development of the vaccines.
Joe Biden hopes to get credit for what may well be a major coronavirus success story in the U.S. He claims:
Just over four weeks ago, America had no real plan to vaccinate most of the country. My predecessor, as my mother would say, ‘failed to order enough vaccines,’ failed to mobilize the effort to administer the shots… That changed the moment we took office.
Would Biden’s mother really have said that? Regardless, it’s a lie. As Jean at Neo points out, about one million people were being vaccinated per day when Trump left office.
It is those vaccinations that currently are preventing new infections. Most of the doses administered since Biden took office haven’t had time to confer a high level of immunity.
But for the Trump administration’s ability to move quickly, we wouldn’t be experiencing the kind of improved numbers cited above. Our rate of improvement might well be small to negligible — like France’s.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/02/new-coronavirus-cases-plummet-in-u-s-and-the-uk.php
No comments:
Post a Comment