Don's Tuesday Column

           THE WAY I SEE IT   by Don Polson   Red Bluff Daily News   11/15/2016

          Presidential election “debriefing”

The cheers, high-fives and elation in Red Bluff’s Republican Headquarters on election night kept us buoyed throughout the call of state after state for Donald Trump. By midnight, we saw Pennsylvania go for Trump, giving him 269 EC votes, and went to our homes for Trump’s acceptance speech. There’s been little coverage of Republican celebration but celebrate we did. Note: Trump got 65% in Tehama Co.

The Republican HQ could not have been the open-door source for signs, hats, stickers, buttons and hope without volunteers giving their time—including the Central Committee and Republican Women Federated. Our phone bank helped the Trump campaign shift resources from Colorado (apparently not going Trump’s way) to “Get Out the Vote” calls to Florida. It was fun and uplifting to participate in a winning campaign after the heartbreaks in 2008 and 2012.

I'm entitled to an “I told ya so” given my prediction in last week’s column: “Based on such statistical analysis, I could see Trump winning the popular vote and at least 270 Electoral College votes.” That analysis, you may recall, cited the heavy over-sampling of Democrats in pollsters’ surveys. Only IBD, LA Times/USC and Trafalgar had predicted a Trump win. Trafalgar’s pollster found the “hidden Trump” supporters by sidestepping the reluctance of shy voters to choose Trump in a survey—they were asked who they thought their neighbors supported. Clinton’s voters held no similar hidden support. 

Trump fell short of the popular vote win by about 700,000 votes (as of Monday, based on “uselectionatlas.org”), with 60.6 million votes to Clinton’s 61.3 million. Hence, Trump’s 47 percent was about a half percent below her 47.5 percent. I believe millions of votes came from felons, illegal immigrants, dead and fraudulent voters.

Election facets little noted, let alone analyzed: The votes for non-Trump substitute, Evan McMullin (who thankfully failed to spoil Trump’s win in Utah), were almost half a million or 0.4 percent of the vote. While an anti-Trump choice, they nonetheless remain votes on the conservative Republican side and almost cancel Clinton’s lead.

Over 4 million votes went to the Libertarian, Gary Johnson, and about 1.25 million for the Green Party’s Jill Stein. In the Left/Right spectrum, the Libertarian preference for less government in our lives must be placed on the Right, while the Green Party is clearly a government-centric Left side choice. That gives the candidates on the Right about 65.3 million to the Left’s total of about 62.6 million, or almost 51 percent of the popular vote on the Right, to about 48.5 percent on the Left. “Write-ins” account for over 700,000 votes, or 0.5 percent.

While Trump’s sub-majority is bandied about as a non-mandate, the clear majority of votes for the Right side of the spectrum tell a story of popular endorsement for conservative governance. Outside of California, Trump got 2 million more votes than Clinton.

It’s similar to Richard Nixon’s win over Hubert Humphrey in 1968. Nixon’s 31.7 million votes, or 43.4 percent, barely edged out Humphrey’s 31.3 million, or 42.7 percent. However, George Wallace’s American Independent Party got almost 10 million votes. William Rusher explained in “The Rise of the Right” that many millions of voters flocked to Wallace’s side, not due to racism but rather to make a statement in support of conservative governance and in opposition to encroaching federal intrusion.

Note how the news media effortlessly shifted from “Elect Hillary” mode to “Trump’s-win-gives-joy-to-no-one” mode and overblown coverage of predictable demonstration/protest/riot crowds inspired and organized by paid operatives. A USA Today article, attempting to define “protesters” as “all walks of life” folks, failed to discover that 2 of their featured “protesters” were on-the-record professional activists for Democrat groups: Yong Jung Cho and Phil Roeder. Shameless advocacy journalism with thinly veiled agendas is the biggest loser—the mainstream, Coastal, urban Beltway-centric news media have forever lost Americans’ trust.

The constant triumphal-ism from Democrats was fed by their certainty over perpetual electoral victories via the increasing demographic groups voting their way: minorities, women, young, and college-educated. In “What’s the Matter with Kansas,” William White made a case for the ironic voting preferences of rural “flyover” voters—ironic if you believe that centralized, redistributive federal government provides obvious benefits to middle and lower classes that ought to return the favors with their votes. Hence, the shock and emotional turmoil over finding out that the voters are not participating in the Left’s inexorable march to top-down regimentation.

Here are some sobering (to the Left) factual realities: The Democrat state-by-state breakdown heavily disfavors their party and candidates. Almost half of the 50 states have total Republican control (of both legislative chambers and the governors’ mansions) while only 4 states—Hawaii, California, Oregon and Rhode Island—have similar total Democrat control.

The Democrat “blue wall” of solid voting states is smaller than they would have you believe. The states where Hillary Clinton won either a majority or a plurality beyond the total of the Trump+Johnson vote total 194 Electoral votes: HI, WA, OR, CA, IL, VA, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT and D.C. The states Clinton won but by less than the combined Trump and Johnson vote total 38 EC votes: NV, CO, NM, MN, NH and ME. The final EC tally (after MI and NH are called for Trump and Clinton) will be Trump-306 to Clinton-232.

The bottom line doesn’t look good for the arrogant, liberal political, cultural and media elite as they only dominate the West Coast, Illinois, and the East Coast from Virginia north, (except for Maine and New Hampshire)—totaling less than 200 EC votes. How’s that going to work for out for the future of the progressive/socialist left? I wouldn’t want to trade places.