Gallup: Obama in trouble
January 8, 2012 by Don Surber
While the debates of last night and today focus on the Republican candidates for the president, the Democratic nominee is in trouble. Gallup polls in the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day showed voters were not in the holiday spirit when thinking about His Excellency.
His overall approval/disapproval numbers were 42% approval/49% disapproval.
So much for winning that “Payroll Tax Cut” issue.
That 42% approval is not evenly distributed.
Among black people, he is at 83% approval.
Among white people, he is down to 35% approval. In 2008, he received 43% of the white vote — the highest for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Among Hispanic people, he is at 46% approval. In 2008, he received 67% of the Hispanic vote.
By age group, he is at 47% approval among voters under 30. In 2008, he received 66% of their vote.
Among voters 65 and older, he is at 41% approval. In 2008, he received 47% of their vote.
Elections are won in the states. Right now it looks like a bloodbath.
His approval is 52% in the East.
And 40% in the South.
And 40% in the West.
And 40% in the Midwest.
That’s 114 Electoral College votes right there (not counting New Hampshire) and added to the 191 Electoral College votes that Real Clear Politics says Republicans will take, that is 305 votes — well above the 70 needed to make Barack Obama a one-term president.
But the numbers also help Republicans in 6 of the 7 “leans Democrat” states: Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5) and Oregon (7). That is 50 more Electoral College votes. That means a Republican could get 355 Electoral College votes if the election were held today — the most Any Republican has received in 24 years — going back to 1988 when George Herbert Walker Bush carried 40 states and received 426 Electoral College votes.
We shall see.
Linked by Glenn Reynolds. Thanks.
January 8, 2012 by Don Surber
While the debates of last night and today focus on the Republican candidates for the president, the Democratic nominee is in trouble. Gallup polls in the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day showed voters were not in the holiday spirit when thinking about His Excellency.
His overall approval/disapproval numbers were 42% approval/49% disapproval.
So much for winning that “Payroll Tax Cut” issue.
That 42% approval is not evenly distributed.
Among black people, he is at 83% approval.
Among white people, he is down to 35% approval. In 2008, he received 43% of the white vote — the highest for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Among Hispanic people, he is at 46% approval. In 2008, he received 67% of the Hispanic vote.
By age group, he is at 47% approval among voters under 30. In 2008, he received 66% of their vote.
Among voters 65 and older, he is at 41% approval. In 2008, he received 47% of their vote.
Elections are won in the states. Right now it looks like a bloodbath.
His approval is 52% in the East.
And 40% in the South.
And 40% in the West.
And 40% in the Midwest.
Now Gallup did not define those regions. But Real Clear listed 8 states that look to be tossups, and only one of them can be defined as East (except by the commissioner of the Big East football conference who think Idaho is in the East): Colorado (9), Florida (29), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10).
That’s 114 Electoral College votes right there (not counting New Hampshire) and added to the 191 Electoral College votes that Real Clear Politics says Republicans will take, that is 305 votes — well above the 70 needed to make Barack Obama a one-term president.
But the numbers also help Republicans in 6 of the 7 “leans Democrat” states: Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5) and Oregon (7). That is 50 more Electoral College votes. That means a Republican could get 355 Electoral College votes if the election were held today — the most Any Republican has received in 24 years — going back to 1988 when George Herbert Walker Bush carried 40 states and received 426 Electoral College votes.
We shall see.
Linked by Glenn Reynolds. Thanks.
http://blogs.dailymail.com/donsurber/archives/49247
Optimistic Poll Data
We are awash in poll data these days, but two recent surveys, both offering grounds for optimism, are worth singling out. The first is a Reuters-Ipsos poll released earlier today that finds Mitt Romney with a 21-point lead in South Carolina. Reuters-Ipsos has Romney at 37%, with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum at 16% each. Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry bring up the rear–well, except for Jon Huntsman–with 12% and 6% respectively. If this survey is at all predictive, Republican voters are not responding positively to Gingrich’s and Perry’s attacks on Romney’s work in the private sector. That’s a good thing, in my opinion, regardless of whether Romney is your candidate.
The second finding is from Rasmussen Reports, a matchup between President Obama and Ron Paul among likely voters. I find it remarkable that Obama leads Paul only 43-37%. Paul is a candidate with strong but limited appeal, sort of like anchovies on pizza. It is extraordinary that an incumbent president can’t get more than 43% of likely voters to back him against Paul, who is widely regarded as a fringe candidate. This strikes me as evidence of strong resistance to Obama among most voters.
Pundits generally say that Obama can be re-elected if the economy improves between now and November. Perhaps so; an improving economy obviously will help him some. My own view, however, is that disapproval of Obama is more deep-seated than that. Most voters who have been disappointed, if not appalled, by the Obama administration are not going to forget the last three years merely because of modest uptick in the economy. That’s my hope, anyway.
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/01/optimistic-poll-data.php
The second finding is from Rasmussen Reports, a matchup between President Obama and Ron Paul among likely voters. I find it remarkable that Obama leads Paul only 43-37%. Paul is a candidate with strong but limited appeal, sort of like anchovies on pizza. It is extraordinary that an incumbent president can’t get more than 43% of likely voters to back him against Paul, who is widely regarded as a fringe candidate. This strikes me as evidence of strong resistance to Obama among most voters.
Pundits generally say that Obama can be re-elected if the economy improves between now and November. Perhaps so; an improving economy obviously will help him some. My own view, however, is that disapproval of Obama is more deep-seated than that. Most voters who have been disappointed, if not appalled, by the Obama administration are not going to forget the last three years merely because of modest uptick in the economy. That’s my hope, anyway.
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/01/optimistic-poll-data.php
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