Election 2012: Romney 43% Obama 42%

Election 2012: Romney 43% Obama 42%

In a very early look at Election 2012, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are essentially even.

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows Romney attracting 43% of the vote while Obama earns support from 42%. In April, Obama held a five-point edge over Romney.

President Obama currently trails a Generic Republican by six points, 47% to 41%. In match-ups against individual Republicans, the president picks up between 41% and 49% of the vote no matter which Republican is presented as a potential opponent.

The match-up surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters were conducted from June 24-July 17, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for the surveys is +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Romney leads by seven among men but trails by five among women. The president leads among voters under 40 while Romney has the edge among older voters.

The former Governor leads by eight among unaffiliated voters and picks up 78% of the Republican vote. The president earns 84% of the vote from his own party.

Polls conducted a year-and-a-half before an election provide a snapshot of where things are today but give little indication of what the mood might be on Election Day. If the economy substantially improves before November 2012, President Obama will be heavily favored to win re-election. If the opposite happens and the country endures a double-dip recession, just about any Republican challenger would be favored. If the economy stays as it is today, the race could be very competitive.

A good measure of the president’s re-election prospects is his Job Approval rating among likely voters. His final vote total is likely to be very close to his final Job Approval figures.

Romney leads the polls for the GOP nomination among Republican Primary voters. However, it is far too early for the polls to give a sense of who is likely to emerge as the Republican nominee. In 2008, John McCain never took the lead in a national primary poll until December 31, 2007.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/election_2012_romney_43_obama_42