Sunday, November 15, 2009

Obama's self-created Afghan decision-quagmire

Krauthammer's Take [NRO Staff]:

From last night's Fox News All-Stars.

On the administration’s commitment to the war in Afghanistan:

"He [Obama] has to sell it, and I think the delay has made his task a lot harder. The delay has put our allies in some doubt.

"That's not just the NATO allies, Canadians and others who are talking about withdrawing in a couple of years. It is the Afghans who have chosen our side and have to wonder — in the end, will the United States withdraw and leave them hanging?

"And the other uncertainty is about Obama's commitment himself. The issue is: If he takes this long, and if he gives all these excuses — which you talked about just a moment ago, about how we may not have a partner in Afghanistan, we may not have a partner in Pakistan — you're expressing doubts about our allies in the region, and you're implying that somehow this is a kind of social work, that the reason that we’re at war is to bolster these allies.

"It's protection of the American homeland. It's what Petraeus had talked about — keeping out al-Qaeda and preventing the regrouping of al-Qaeda and their allies. It's our war, and it's in the name of our security.

"If the president expresses all of this uncertainty and takes this long in agonizing, you got to wonder, is his heart in it? He has to make a speech after his decision to demonstrate that he really is committed to success in this, because all of this delay and these excuses about Afghan/Pakistani partners gives the impression of an administration that will be looking for an excuse of a certain point of withdrawing or pulling back..."

And more on the decision-quagmire from Rich Lowry:

For a 'Dumb' Afghanistan Strategy [Rich Lowry]:

"At this point, Obama needs to settle for a "dumb" Afghan strategy. He's clearly trying to be too cute and clever, and micro-managing aspects of the military campaign that are beneath his pay-grade. If he believes success in Afghanistan is important and a counter-insurgency campaign is the best way to achieve it, he should give McChrystal the troops he says he needs (actually, he should probably give him more if possible, to reduce the risk of failure). This business of examining the troop numbers province-by-province, and devising various "off ramps," and parsing out what troop commitment will best pressure Karzai is a foolish attempt at an impossible exactitude. No plan so finely tuned from on high is going to survive its first contact with reality. Obama needs a "dumb" approach — figure out the basic strategy, resource it, and leave it at that. If it's a successful strategy, most of the other things will probably follow — the off ramps, the welcome effect on Karzai, etc. This is not to say the implementation of the strategy shouldn't be savvy and adaptive. But that's for his generals. Obama just needs to make the simple — if not easy — decision and provide the political leadership to back it up. The world is waiting."

And, finally, yet more perceptive, incisive analysis from Jonah Goldberg:

"He Now Owns the Pink Slip, the Blue Prints, and the Patent" [Jonah Goldberg]:

"It's become a cliché to say that Obama "owns" the war in Afghanistan now. There have been lots of "Obama's war" thumbsuckers in the papers for at least a month now.

"Well, now that Obama has reportedly rejected all of the plans from all of the experts in order to craft something more befitting his Olympian intellect, he couldn't possibly own the war more. Now if things go (more) south he can't even say, "I relied on the best guidance and advice of my generals.""

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