Swing State Early Voting Data Brings Good News for Trump, GOP
In what may be an encouraging development for Republicans in general and the Trump/Vance campaign in particular, early vote-by-mail data in three states - two of which are key swing states - appear to favor the GOP.
Vote-by-mail data in three key states shows the edge Democrats enjoyed in 2020 has plummeted, something one expert said is a great sign for Republicans and former President Donald Trump.
"It’s great news that Republicans are starting to early vote," Jimmy Keady, the founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, a Republican consulting firm, told Fox News Digital.
The comments come as the Democratic edge in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk significantly in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, according to data by Decision Desk HQ, signaling a shift in voter habits that have defined the last two elections.
Two of the states named are critical for former President Trump's electoral success: North Carolina and Pennsylvania. But there's a cautionary note here; the shift is not all it might be, as the GOP has merely reduced the Democrat lead in early voting, not eliminated it. But it's encouraging nonetheless.
According to the data, the Democratic lead in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk by over 5% in Florida, nearly 15% in North Carolina and over 35% in Pennsylvania.
Getting voters out to early in-person voting or to vote by mail can free up resources for campaigns, Keady said, allowing them to focus their attention on lower propensity voters who often play a big role in deciding elections.
"I’m sure voters complain all the time about text messages, about getting mail, about getting robocalls to go vote," Keady said. "Campaigns are now sophisticated enough that once you go vote, those stop… once a voter goes to vote, and those stop, that allows resource allocation from that voter to another voter."
In these swing states, Florida is a near-certain GOP win, and the RealClearPolitics polling aggregates show Kamala Harris is currently leading Donald Trump in Pennsylvania by a hair-thin 0.6 points. In contrast, Trump leads in North Carolina by an equally narrow 0.6 points. This is an election where turnout will be critical, and the GOP seems to be narrowing that early-vote advantage - although they have not overtaken it.
It's become accepted wisdom that Democrats are more likely to favor early and mail-in voting, while Republicans are more inclined to cast their votes in the traditional manner on election day.
See Related: Pennsylvania Mail-In Ballot Requests Still Heavily Favor Democrats—Turnout Will Be Key
HUGE WIN: Georgia Elections Board Overrules State AG, Requires Hand Count of Ballots on Election Day
There's no good reason, however, why Republican voters and Trump supporters, some of whom are independents, shouldn't take advantage of the system that allows them to "bank their vote." Mail-in ballots, in particular, are indeed rife with risk, and, understandably, some (including me, to be honest) don't trust the system. But many of these states allow early in-person voting, and there's little reason not to make sure that one's vote is cast as soon as possible. As the linked article above notes, this allows a campaign's get-out-the-vote efforts to focus on low-propensity voters.
Another indication from this data may be the insight into voter enthusiasm. Trump voters may well be more motivated to get their vote in and recorded, and that speaks well for the Republican's chances in these swing states, which are essential for a Trump electoral college victory.
Turnout will be the key in November. If the GOP can play this game and cut into the Democrat lead, that's for the best.
No comments:
Post a Comment