New Georgia Poll Hints That State is Out of Reach for Kamala Harris
A new CBS/YouGov poll released Wednesday has former President Donald Trump leading Democrat Kamala Harris by two points. The poll of 1,441 registered voters shows Trump with a 51 percent to 49 percent lead.
This is the latest in a string of polls showing Trump leading by between one and four points in Georgia; see here and here. The CBS/YouGov poll called the 2020 race in Georgia on the money.
The entire poll is at the bottom of the post, but I think there are some interesting items that need highlighting.
I think this poll undercounts Trump's strength in Georgia. The topline split is two points, but when you dig deeper, that doesn't seem plausible.
Poll crosstabs show that Trump leads men by 13 points (56 percent to 43 percent) and Harris leads women by seven points (53 percent to 46 percent). If the male-female crosstabs are accurate, I don't think you can get to a two-point lead. I've posted on Harris's problem with male voters not named Willie Brown; see Tim Walz's Manly Essence Isn't Helping Kamala Win Male Voters. The inability of the Harris-Walz ticket to appeal to male voters will be the big story if Trump wins this election.
The poll hit some political issue peculiar to Georgia as well as those with national attention.
- Sixty-five percent of those surveyed think things are going either "somewhat" or "very badly" for the country.
- Voters prefer Trump's economic policies to Harris's by 14 points.
- For all the harping on "democracy," by 45 percent to 42 percent, Georgians thought Donald Trump would make democracy stronger.
- By 49 percent to 35 percent, voters thought they would be better of financially with Trump as president.
- Bidenomics is a non-starter. Seventy-nine percent of voters say their income is not keeping up with inflation and only 22 percent say they are better off financially now than four years ago. Seventy-one percent said housing is either "somewhat" or "very" unaffordable.
- The Democrats have invested a lot of money in campaigning for more gun control, and both Harris and Trump are tied on the question of their policies reducing "gun violence."
- Abortion is another hot-button issue the Democrats have invested heavily in. While 59 percent of voters believe abortion should be legal in "most" or "all" cases, they are split 50-50 on whether Georgia's six-week abortion ban is "too strict" or "about right/not strict enough." The scaremongering over women dying for want of an abortion isn't working. Fifty-four percent believe that pregnancy is either "safer" or "hasn't changed" since the six-week ban was enacted. Significantly, 71 percent believe Harris will pass a national law making abortion legal everywhere but only 34 percent think Trump will make abortion illegal in all states.
- Majorities approve of the new hand-count mandate and believe it will give more accurate results.
In short, Trump is winning on every major issue, voters are unhappy with their situation, and everyone is looking forward to voting. As I noted, I don't think you can go through the crosstabs and conclude that Trump is only ahead by two points. If this poll is close to accurate, it is game over in Georgia for Harris-Walz.
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