The Democrats are pushing all the chips into the middle of the table. With Kamala Harris calling us Nazis and fascists, and Joe Biden calling us garbage, they aren’t planning any sort of unity-fest if they win. While Donald Trump is laying out a positive vision for his second term, one that will benefit all Americans who aren’t financially tied to the status quo, the Democrats are preparing to go scorched earth.
After all, if you are in power and your country is infected with Nazis, fascists and garbage people, what should they expect? We will see a crackdown the likes of which our country has never experienced, with near-total control over the means of communication and lawfare that, this time, won’t only be directed at figures like Trump and Steve Bannon, who was just released from a federal prison. I think the Democrats plan on casting a much wider net to punish “Nazis” and “fascists,” with no one to protest except us garbage people, whom they intend to silence, one way or another. If the Democrats can get to 51%, they will try to cement themselves in power for a long time to come.
So which vision is going to come true? The positive, or the dystopian? Many Trump supporters are feeling exultant, as the tide has been running, if only weakly, in his direction. The RealClearPolitics average betting odds now stand at 64%/35% in Trump’s favor. But if the polls are a guide, Trump’s momentum has slowed somewhat. The most recent surveys have him tied in Michigan, either tied, down one or up three in North Carolina, tied or up one in Wisconsin, tied (twice) or up three in Pennsylvania, and so on. The polls are telling us the election is too close to call, and I don’t think there is any reason to believe they are–all!–somehow undercounting Republican voters. That certainly isn’t what happened in 2022.
Some observers interpret the Democrats’ hysterical attacks of recent days as signs of panic, and that could be correct. But I think they more likely represent an effort to drive turnout in their base, and, as suggested above, to lay the groundwork for a Harris administration crackdown on opponents. There is a report that the Harris campaign canceled a $1.7 million television ad buy in North Carolina, which a Trump representative hailed as meaning the Democrats have given up on that state. Maybe so. But it is hard to believe that their internal polling would be so far from the virtual dead heat reflected in public polls.
In the end, my forecast hasn’t changed. I don’t think that Kamala Harris, a terrible candidate, can overcome the awful record of the Biden/Harris administration. And I hold some hope that her hateful campaign will repel a small segment of swing voters.
Historically, there has generally been movement in one direction or the other in the last days before an election, as undecided voters make up their minds. A good example is 2000, when the Democrats’ November surprise and Al Gore’s cross-country extravaganza turned what looked like a sure win for George W. Bush into a nail-biter. If there is a last-minute swing this year, it will be very small, as almost all voters are solidly locked in. But I hope it will be enough to carry Trump to victory.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/10/signs-and-portents-2.php
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