Houthis Sink a Tanker in Gulf of Aden and Give the US a Black Eye but Enjoy the Great Plot Twist
A Houthi terrorist-fired anti-ship ballistic missile hit a petroleum tanker in the Gulf of Aden, and the crew was forced to abandon the ship on Friday. The British-owned, Marshall Islands-flagged 110,000-ton tanker M/T Marlin Luanda was carrying a cargo of Russian naphtha from Greece to Singapore. A second ship, the Panama-flagged 109,000-ton tanker M/T Achilles (ownership is unknown), loaded with petroleum products taken on in Prmorsk, Russia, with no revealed destination, was also targeted but completed its transit safely.
Sal Mercogliano (@mercoglianos) has recorded the engagement from @MarineTraffic and removed the clutter of other ships. At 0:41, you can see the result of the impact as the M/T Marlin Luanda rapidly decelerates. If you are interested in what is happening in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden or shipping in general, give him a follow.
The crew of the M/T Marlin Luanda tried to save the ship but were overwhelmed and, according to reports, abandoned the ship. The Indian destroyer INS Visakhapatnam was first on the scene to render assistance. Since then other coalition warships have responded.
The loss of the M/T Marlin Luanda was confirmed in an interview with Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman C. Q. Brown on ABC.
Earlier in the day, the USS Carney came under attack from a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile and shot it down.
Key Points
1. This engagement happened in the same area as the incident on Thursday in which two US-flagged and US-owned container ships and the USS Gravely were forced to beat an ignominious retreat out of missile range.
READ: Houthis Force US-Escorted Convoy to Retreat
2. The Houthis have successfully expanded the battlespace to include the northern half of the Gulf of Aden.
3. The stories do not mention the Iranian intelligence ship MV Behshad. Still, one has to assume it is lurking in the area and providing targeting information to the Houthis.
3. This episode makes Operation Prosperity Guardian more of a joke than it already is. A US carrier strike group in the area does no good if it cannot enforce freedom of navigation.
4. If the pattern established over the last couple of weeks holds, the combination of a US destroyer being attacked and a civilian tanker sunk will draw a response under the aegis of Operation Poseidon Archer
READ: Biden Decides One Strategic Failure in the Red Sea Isn't Enough So He Creates a Second One
5. We need to see if this strike will go after a few launchers or if it will hit command and control nodes that enable the Houthis to engage shipping targets.
6. A point I've made consistently since this fight over the control of the Red Sea began is that Jake Sullivan and Biden's national security team are playing not to lose, rather than to win. They are obviously afraid of offending Iran by thumping their Houthi proxies. This timidity and indecisiveness has emboldened the Houthis. The problem with the Sullivan strategy is that the US Navy has to win 100 percent of the time. The Houthis only need an occasional big day, like today. to make their point to maritime insurance companies that they should avoid the Red Sea.
READ:
Houthis Launch Largest Attack So Far Targeting American-Flagged Merchant Ships With American Sailors
Red Sea Security Coalition Melts Down As Member Nations Refuse to Accept US Leadership
Yemen's Houthis Were So Terrified by Biden's Attack That They've Started Attacking US Ships Again
This wishy-washy, grad school style of national security planning, where responses are carefully calibrated, doesn't work in real life. Biden has staked US prestige on keeping the Red Sea open, and it has been proven that he doesn't have the huevos needed to do the job. It will take a generation to undo the damage he's done.
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