Utah Sen. Mitt Romney isn’t the only one who thinks President Trump will win reelection despite turmoil over the coronavirus and race.
The latest 2020 Zogby Poll of 1,007 likely voters shared with Secrets gave Trump a 51%-43% edge over Democrat Joe Biden. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Most polls show Biden beating Trump, though Zogby recently put the race as a dead heat, 46%-46%.
The new poll is different. Instead of asking for their preference, it asked which candidate do voters think will win regardless of their personal politics. Here, issues such as voter enthusiasm play a role. And the belief that Republicans are better for the economy, also tested in the survey, likely gave Trump a slight edge.
In his analysis, pollster Jonathan Zogby said that Trump remains very strong with his base. He is also winning middle age and older voters. And he’s crushing Biden among union workers.
Importantly, Trump is in a virtual tie with Biden among women, Hispanic, and suburban voters.
Said the analysis:
“The subgroups most likely to believe the president would win were his base: Born Again Christians (Trump 68%/Biden 28%), NASCAR fans (Trump 68%/Biden 29%), union voters (Trump 61%/Biden 35%), and voters who recently lost a job (Trump 58%/Biden 34%). Most other demographics agreed Trump would beat Biden in 2020, regardless of their political ideology or support. Here is a breakdown of other important subgroups who thought Trump would beat Biden regardless of their political leanings: both men (Trump 57%/Biden 39%) and women (Trump 47%/Biden 46%) said Trump would win, as did voters living in the East (Trump 49%/Biden 45%), South (Trump 53%/Biden 42%) and Central/Great Lakes (Trump 56%/Biden 38%). The West region (Biden 49%/Trump 42%) disagreed with voters, overall, and felt Biden had the best chance to win in 2020.”
The survey was the latest to show that while voters indicate they prefer Biden, they expect Trump to win. That sentiment parallels what Romney has said in recent months. While he regularly clashes with Trump, Romney said this week again that he expects Trump to win. In April, he said, “I think it’s pretty much a jump ball,” but that, “I think I’d give the advantage to the incumbent, President Trump, I think it’s more likely he gets reelected.”
The survey also asked which party was the bigger threat to the economy. It was close, with 51% pointing the finger at Democrats and 49% at the Republicans.
But some key 2020 voting groups (Hispanics, independents) “thought Democrats were a bigger threat to an economic recovery,” said the analysis.
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