Tea party takes seat at political table By: Scott Rasmussen and Douglas E. Schoen
The tea party movement may well be the most powerful and potent force in America.
More than half, or 54percent, of Americans believe the tea party movement has been a good thing for the U.S. political system, our new survey revealed. Only 22 percent say that it is a bad thing, while 19 percent say it has made no difference.
This agrees with other recent polls. Fifty-five percent of Americans said that the tea party movement can be effective in making major changes in Washington in the near future, according to the most recent ABC News/Yahoo! News poll.
Supporting this notion, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll suggests that tea party backers – more than one-third (35 percent) of likely midterm voters –plan to vote for Republicans by a margin of 84 percent to 10 percent.
Thus the tea party movement is playing a substantial role in driving voters toward the GOP in the midterms– contributing to the Republicans’ 9-point generic vote lead in our survey — which increases to 12 points among the most likely voters. This could potentially mean a GOP takeover of one, and maybe even both, houses of Congress.
While many label the tea party movement as divisive, 69 percent of Americans now say that they are either positive about or neutral to the tea party, and only 24 percent of Americans say that they are against it.
Even with these numbers, the political class’s assault on the tea parties has been continuing and systematic. Indeed, Rasmussen Reports has shown that 87 percent of the political class views “tea party member” as a negative description, while almost half – or 48 percent — of ordinary mainstream voters see it as a positive.
The reason for this broad-based support is simple: Voters in our survey said that they believe that the current leadership in both parties has failed to achieve policies that address their most pressing concerns — creating jobs and fixing the economy. Furthermore, respondents were clear that they want a pro-growth agenda, fiscal discipline, limited government, deficit reduction, a free market and a change from politics as usual. They view the tea party movement as having a unique contribution in achieving these goals.
Given today’s anti-Washington, anti-incumbent sentiment, it is hardly surprising that voters have largely rejected the efforts of political, academic and media elites – on both right and left – to ignore or marginalize the tea party. Many among these elites have now branded the tea party movement as Astroturf, an inauthentic political movement funded by wealthy and influential businessmen.
Yet more than half the electorate (51 percent) still says that the tea party is a grass-roots movement. In terms of organization, 55 percent of the electorate says that the tea party movement is a decentralized collection of groups, organized by ordinary citizens. In terms of funding, voters say that the tea parties are funded organically (48 percent) – not by outside financial elites (30 percent).
These strong numbers indicate that there is little evidence that attacks against the tea party movement from political analysts or the administration are having a major effect.
The tea party movement’s influence goes beyond merely having a powerful brand. Its endorsement is perhaps the most coveted support a candidate can now receive -- more than mainstream party endorsements.
For example, 50 percent of likely voters said they are likely to choose a tea party-backed candidate in the midterm, according to a recent CNN/ORC poll, while only 37 percent of likely voters say they are more likely to vote for a candidate backed by President Barack Obama.
Right now, the tea party has higher favorability than either the Democratic or Republican Party. Forty-four percent of likely voters now say they are favorable to the tea party movement, compared with 38 percent for the Democrats and 30 percent for the GOP, according to a recent Zogby national poll.
More than one-third (36 percent) of Americans say that they have taken active steps to support or learn about the tea party movement, our polling revealed, one-quarter (25 percent) say they are supporters, 23 percent have attended a rally and 24 percent have given money or have friends who have given money.
These are extraordinary numbers that speak to a movement with staying power. In fact. three-quarters (75 percent) of the electorate expect the tea party movement to continue to have an active role indefinitely, and two-thirds (67 percent) say it has already had real impact on the political process.
Independent estimates have shown that the movement has the potential to elect up to 100 House members and at least potentially six new senators, from Florida, Utah, Kentucky, Colorado, Alaska and maybe and Nevada.
It is clear from our polling over the past 18 months – and certainly during this campaign – that rather than being a flash-in-the-pan, the tea party movement has the potential not only to play a big role in November, but to be decisive in the Republican nominating process in 2012. As well as in electing the next president.
Scott Rasmussen is president of Rasmussen Reports. Douglas Schoen is a political strategist. Together, they are the authors of the new book Mad as Hell: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System (Harper, an imprint of HarperCollins).
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/44140.html
No comments:
Post a Comment