Resurgent Republicans close gap in key states – USATODAY.com
Jim Messina, Obama's campaign manager, disputes the idea that Democrats are at a disadvantage. "It's not what we're seeing on the ground," he said in an interview. "We have built a really good ground operation. We've spent the last year building the infrastructure for a ground operation to turn out our votes, and the Republicans just haven't."
He notes that the president has attracted more than a million donors to his campaign this year, 40% of them first-time contributors, and has been able to deploy volunteers who have had more than 1 million "conversations" with other voters on his behalf.
This is the second in a series of surveys that USA TODAY and Gallup will be taking through the 2012 campaign focused on 12 swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire,
New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Most other states and the District of Columbia are all but guaranteed to be won by one party or the other, giving Obama a likely base of 196 electoral votes and the Republican nominee a base of 191. A candidate needs 270 to win the White House.
But these battlegrounds — chosen based on their voting histories, the results of the 2010 midterms and demographic trends — are up for grabs. Obama carried all of them in 2008 and needs to claim half of their electoral votes this time to win a second term.
In swing states, Obama trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among registered voters by 5 points, 43% vs. 48%, and former House speaker Newt Gingrich by 3, 45% vs. 48%.
That's a bit worse than the president fares nationwide, where he leads Gingrich 50%-44% and edges Romney 47%-46%.
Amy Rybarczyk, 37, a pharmacist from Uniontown, Ohio, who was among those surveyed, voted with élan for Obama in 2008, helping him carry what has been the nation's quintessential swing state for a generation.
This time, she wants to see which contender the GOP nominates before deciding.
"I'm still kind of waiting to see how things are going to turn out," Rybarczyk said in a follow-up interview. "I just feel that the system is so broken that anybody you put there is ineffective. It's hard to see actual change happen."
Tim Shedd, 32, a transportation consultant from Denver who voted for Republican John McCain in 2008, worries that the GOP has "a crazy collection of candidates" running. Even though he hasn't settled on one to support — he was intrigued by Herman Cain until the former corporate executive suspended his campaign amid scandal — Shedd already is looking forward to Election Day.
"I feel better about the Republican chances of winning this time," he says.
The decline in the number of voters who identify themselves as Democrats — and the rise in those who call themselves independents — complicates the president's re-election strategy.
In the swing states, the number of self-identified Democrats (not including those who lean Democratic) fell from 35% to 30% since 2008. The number of independents rose 7 points, 35% to 42%.
"It means that the votes that President Obama needs to cobble together are going to be made up more of independents than they were last time," says Lanae Erickson of Third Way. The centrist Democratic think tank last week released a study tracking trends in voter registration in battleground states. "This time, it's going to be much, much closer, and in a closer race those independents are going to put him over the top."
In three of the eight swing states that have party registration — Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire — there are now more independents than either Republicans or Democrats.
Obama's problem: Independents by definition aren't loyal to a party's nominee. And the full-throated appeals that help energize the Democrats' most loyal partisans — African Americans, liberals, Hispanics and others — can put off independent voters.
Republicans face a similar problem. A nomination contest that pulls candidates to the right to appeal to the most conservative primary voters can create problems in the general election.
But the nation's ideological makeup creates more stress for Democrats than Republicans. In the 12 swing states identified by USA TODAY, 44% of those surveyed are conservatives, more than double the 21% who call themselves liberal.
To win a majority, the GOP needs to attract the lion's share of conservatives plus only a fraction of the 35% who call themselves moderates.
In contrast, the Democratic candidate has to claim the solid support not only of liberals but also most of the moderates.
In recent days, Obama clearly has been trying to thread that needle.
In decisions that delighted environmentalists and gay rights advocates, he has delayed approval for a oil pipeline that would stretch from Canada to Texas and announced foreign aid would be used to promote gay rights abroad.
At the same time, in decisions that pleased conservatives, his administration has blocked an FDA decision to allow unrestricted sale of the morning-after pill and scrapped clean-air regulations planned at the EPA.
He delivered what the White House billed as a major speech last week in Osawatomie, Kan. — an iconic site where Republican Teddy Roosevelt delivered a classic populist stemwinder.
"The breathtaking greed of a few … plunged our economy and the world into a crisis from which we're still fighting to recover," he declared in words that echoed the sentiments of Occupy Wall Street protesters. "It's claimed the jobs and the homes and the basic security of millions of people — innocent, hard-working Americans who had met their responsibilities but were still left holding the bag."
But he also distanced himself from the mantra of Occupy demonstrators against "the 1%" — that is, the richest Americans who have benefited from a widening income inequality and exercise outsized influence.
"I'm here in Kansas to reaffirm my deep conviction that we're greater together than we are on our own," he quickly added. "These aren't Democratic values or Republican values. These aren't 1% values or 99% values. They're American values."
WASHINGTON – President Obama is moving to energize the Democratic base for his re-election campaign, but in the case of a dozen battleground states, he'll have to work harder than four years ago to find it.
"Enthusiasm is a tremendous benefit," Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus said in an interview. "We're going to be able to mobilize a grass-roots army. It helps us recruit volunteers and run absentee-ballot programs. We can fill rooms with people making phone calls and going door-to-door."
He says enthusiasm has shifted to the GOP because voters who were inclined to favor Obama in 2008 now see him as "a fraud."
Jim Messina, Obama's campaign manager, disputes the idea that Democrats are at a disadvantage. "It's not what we're seeing on the ground," he said in an interview. "We have built a really good ground operation. We've spent the last year building the infrastructure for a ground operation to turn out our votes, and the Republicans just haven't."
He notes that the president has attracted more than a million donors to his campaign this year, 40% of them first-time contributors, and has been able to deploy volunteers who have had more than 1 million "conversations" with other voters on his behalf.
This is the second in a series of surveys that USA TODAY and Gallup will be taking through the 2012 campaign focused on 12 swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire,
New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Most other states and the District of Columbia are all but guaranteed to be won by one party or the other, giving Obama a likely base of 196 electoral votes and the Republican nominee a base of 191. A candidate needs 270 to win the White House.
But these battlegrounds — chosen based on their voting histories, the results of the 2010 midterms and demographic trends — are up for grabs. Obama carried all of them in 2008 and needs to claim half of their electoral votes this time to win a second term.
In swing states, Obama trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among registered voters by 5 points, 43% vs. 48%, and former House speaker Newt Gingrich by 3, 45% vs. 48%.
That's a bit worse than the president fares nationwide, where he leads Gingrich 50%-44% and edges Romney 47%-46%.
Amy Rybarczyk, 37, a pharmacist from Uniontown, Ohio, who was among those surveyed, voted with élan for Obama in 2008, helping him carry what has been the nation's quintessential swing state for a generation.
This time, she wants to see which contender the GOP nominates before deciding.
"I'm still kind of waiting to see how things are going to turn out," Rybarczyk said in a follow-up interview. "I just feel that the system is so broken that anybody you put there is ineffective. It's hard to see actual change happen."
Tim Shedd, 32, a transportation consultant from Denver who voted for Republican John McCain in 2008, worries that the GOP has "a crazy collection of candidates" running. Even though he hasn't settled on one to support — he was intrigued by Herman Cain until the former corporate executive suspended his campaign amid scandal — Shedd already is looking forward to Election Day.
"I feel better about the Republican chances of winning this time," he says.
...
Wooing independents
The decline in the number of voters who identify themselves as Democrats — and the rise in those who call themselves independents — complicates the president's re-election strategy.
In the swing states, the number of self-identified Democrats (not including those who lean Democratic) fell from 35% to 30% since 2008. The number of independents rose 7 points, 35% to 42%.
"It means that the votes that President Obama needs to cobble together are going to be made up more of independents than they were last time," says Lanae Erickson of Third Way. The centrist Democratic think tank last week released a study tracking trends in voter registration in battleground states. "This time, it's going to be much, much closer, and in a closer race those independents are going to put him over the top."
In three of the eight swing states that have party registration — Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire — there are now more independents than either Republicans or Democrats.
Obama's problem: Independents by definition aren't loyal to a party's nominee. And the full-throated appeals that help energize the Democrats' most loyal partisans — African Americans, liberals, Hispanics and others — can put off independent voters.
Republicans face a similar problem. A nomination contest that pulls candidates to the right to appeal to the most conservative primary voters can create problems in the general election.
But the nation's ideological makeup creates more stress for Democrats than Republicans. In the 12 swing states identified by USA TODAY, 44% of those surveyed are conservatives, more than double the 21% who call themselves liberal.
To win a majority, the GOP needs to attract the lion's share of conservatives plus only a fraction of the 35% who call themselves moderates.
In contrast, the Democratic candidate has to claim the solid support not only of liberals but also most of the moderates.
In recent days, Obama clearly has been trying to thread that needle.
In decisions that delighted environmentalists and gay rights advocates, he has delayed approval for a oil pipeline that would stretch from Canada to Texas and announced foreign aid would be used to promote gay rights abroad.
At the same time, in decisions that pleased conservatives, his administration has blocked an FDA decision to allow unrestricted sale of the morning-after pill and scrapped clean-air regulations planned at the EPA.
He delivered what the White House billed as a major speech last week in Osawatomie, Kan. — an iconic site where Republican Teddy Roosevelt delivered a classic populist stemwinder.
"The breathtaking greed of a few … plunged our economy and the world into a crisis from which we're still fighting to recover," he declared in words that echoed the sentiments of Occupy Wall Street protesters. "It's claimed the jobs and the homes and the basic security of millions of people — innocent, hard-working Americans who had met their responsibilities but were still left holding the bag."
But he also distanced himself from the mantra of Occupy demonstrators against "the 1%" — that is, the richest Americans who have benefited from a widening income inequality and exercise outsized influence.
"I'm here in Kansas to reaffirm my deep conviction that we're greater together than we are on our own," he quickly added. "These aren't Democratic values or Republican values. These aren't 1% values or 99% values. They're American values."
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