Saturday, January 27, 2024

Will the resistance in Texas prevail?

Will the resistance in Texas prevail?

25 states and a significant majority of the American people support the Texas Guard's efforts to secure the border.

On Thursday, some 25 Republican Governors issued and signed a joint statement supporting the right of Texas to defend the southern border from illegal alien intrusions. Former President Trump also weighed in, encouraging other red states to assist in the effort to prevent illegals from breaching the border and entering the United States

It’s fair to say that Texas has a significant majority of the American people on its side, given the harm the illegal alien epidemic has imposed upon Americans.

But sadly, having the support of the people is not enough today to fend off the Biden Administration’s attempts to keep the floodgates open at the border.

Right now, there is currently an ongoing Mexican standoff between the Biden Administration and Texas. Neither party has changed the current status quo.

The Biden White House isn’t backing down. They’ve given Texas a 24 hour deadline to allow Border Patrol access to the area, likely so that they can cut the razor wire that makes it more difficult for the illegals to enter the country.

It’s not quite clear how this will turn out. Governor Abbott, for his part, remains in India on a trade mission, which isn’t exactly ideal for a political situation this tenuous.

It’s worth considering the following dynamics when trying to forecast how this thing pans out.

Texas strengths:

  • The American people want a strong border

  • Has the support of 25 state governors and counting

  • The Texas Guard being in place is the status quo

  • The illegal alien issue has impacted virtually every American citizen

Texas weakness:

  • Beholden to the whims of a maniacal, unpredictably destructive federal government

  • Has very limited financial and political autonomy

  • Supreme Court decision was a massive blow to Texas

  • Biden can federalize the guard

  • Abbott historically has folded like a lawn chair on major political issues

Biden admin strengths:

  • Supreme Court leverage

  • The very real threat to federalize the Texas National Guard

  • A superior escalatory threat

  • Though they represent a minority viewpoint, the ruling class on Wall St and in Washington, D.C. want an open border

Biden admin weakness:

  • Deliberately opening up the border is terrible optics

  • It’s election season and they are already in a weak position

  • If Texas doesn’t back down, the White House will have to be the “bad guy”

  • The mask will come fully off related to the somewhat clandestine long term policy to import more Democrat voters

There’s also the strong possibility that Texas and the Biden Admin decide to give the other party the optics that they want, and allow for the Texas Guard to remain in place.

What are your thoughts? Will the resistance in Texas prevail?

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