DEMOCRATS STUMBLE UPON AN EXPLANATION FOR TRUMP’S INCREASING STRENGTH
IN 2024 ELECTION, DONALD TRUMP, JOE BIDEN
ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos was surprised by a new Wall Street Journal poll that showed President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump tied at 46% in a potential 2024 rematch. The survey of 1500 registered voters was conducted August 24-30.
On Sunday’s edition of “This Week,” Stephanopoulos said, “It is kind of shocking in a way that despite all of the baggage that Donald Trump carries, he’s tied with Joe Biden right now.
His “shock” is evidence that Trump Derangement Syndrome is a very real thing and it is blinding Democrats to Biden’s obvious vulnerabilities. It allows them to ignore the fact that the president of the United States has become the laughingstock of the world. He’s barely able to read a speech off of a teleprompter, often butchering and even slurring his words, particularly when he tries to speak fast.
Joining Stephanopoulos on the panel were former Democratic National Committee Chair Donna Brazile and The Atlantic’s Reihan Salam who offered an explanation for Trump’s enduring strength among Republicans.
In analysis that I found refreshing, Brazile said, “We have to respect the fact that Donald Trump is leading a ‘movement.'”
Indeed, he is.
(A transcript and video of their discussion can be viewed on RealClearPolitics.)
Brazile explained:
I’ve never seen anything like this with Donald Trump. I mean, what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger? I mean, being convicted — I mean, being indicted, that’s making him stronger? Raising $10 million using an ugly mug shot to raise money? This is a movement.
And anyone who thinks that you can apply the old political rules to try to defeat this candidate based on he’s scary, he’s ugly, whatever you might want to call him, this is a movement. And we have to respect the fact that it’s a movement.
…
But I have to say something because, George, I’m old enough to say this. I’ve seen two movements outside of the social justice movements in my life on the political side.
One was the Reagan movement. Reagan had a hold on his base. The country at large, they saw him as someone who was willing to stand up for American values, whatever that might have meant. Now I thought it was reactionary.
The other movement I saw was Barack Obama, hope and change. That galvanized the American people.
Salam said: “I think for a lot of people, they feel like the talk about litigation — you know, these various charges, they consider that noise that is baked in, and when he’s focused on the issues, he speaks in a very accessible way that could be meaningful in a general election.”
Brazile and Salam hit the nail on the head. No matter how many times Democrats try to kill the beast, he comes back stronger than before.
As I wrote several days ago, the legal attacks on Trump have made him a sympathetic character among Republicans. But the sustained targeting of the former president may even be bringing some Independents into his tent.
There’s no question the indictments have increased Trump’s support among black men. And a small increase in support among this important group, who overwhelmingly vote Democratic, could swing the election.
One indictment may have been reasonable, but four? All motivated by prosecutors’ hatred of Donald Trump? Most sane voters see that as the political hit job that it is. And Americans love an underdog.
Finally, it’s important to note that the Journal’s poll showing Trump tied to Biden in a head-t0-head matchup, and leading slightly (by one point) when the Green Party is added to the mix, is not an outlier.
The current RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Biden ahead by 0.7, a number that is skewed by a Yahoo News poll conducted between Aug. 17-21 that found Biden up 6 points. Removing that survey from the average, the result would be tied.
Trump did not perform nearly this well in 2020 or even 2016 polling.
A look at 2020 presidential polling data shows that Biden maintained an overwhelming lead – in the high single-digits to the low double-digits – over Trump throughout the election cycle.
Although not quite as pronounced as Biden’s lead in 2020, Hillary Clinton also led decisively in the polls over Trump throughout the 2016 election cycle.
Something is different this time around and Donna Brazile, and to some extent Reihan Salam, may have just put their finger on it. Trump is leading a movement.
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