Gavin Newsom's claim there is no California exodus, debunked
In an interview with Sean Hannity last week, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) claimed the idea of an exodus from California is a myth. But the data tell a far different story.
Let’s start with the basics: Between April 2020 and July 2022, California’s population decreased by more than 500,000 people. And when considering net domestic migration, 700,000 more people moved out of California than moved in during that period.
Newsom pointed out that other states such as Mississippi and Louisiana lost more people per capita than California, suggesting all is fine in the Golden State. But the truth is that comparing these numbers to other states does not make the picture any brighter for California.
In 2022, California had the worst raw domestic net migration numbers of any state, losing almost 350,000 people. When one looks at the number as a portion of the total population, California is still in the bottom 10, losing 0.3% of its residents.
Moreover, as Manhattan Institute fellow Daniel Di Martino pointed out, it is important to consider that the states Newsom mentioned were never particularly stellar in terms of attracting new people. It is, therefore, not necessarily a surprise to see their placement on the list. California, on the other hand, was once the most desirable location in America, the epicenter of the American dream. But there has been a profound change in the perception and reality of California in recent years, which is reflected in these numbers.
Looking at graphs depicting California’s population over time versus a state such as Florida is instructive. While California has been approaching a plateau for many years, with slowing growth and a curve that is concave, Florida’s population has consistently gone up, with a curve that appears convex. In other words, these are long-term trends.
Newsom rebutted Hannity, saying, “There’s been three independent studies ... you should take a look at them, including a brand new one from UCLA,” backing up his assertion these numbers are “anomalous.”
It is true that California's population decreases are a new phenomenon. But they are also quite real and quite severe.
And, as for these studies, I did try to take a look. The issue is that Newsom didn’t cite beyond just saying there are studies. It seems there are two studies that found what Newsom claimed. One is from the California Policy Lab, and the other is from scholars at many institutions, including UC Berkeley, UCLA, Cornell University, and Stanford University.
What are we to make of these studies, which did, in fact, find “no evidence of a pronounced exodus from the state” and that “residents are moving out of state, but not at unusual rates”? Well, we can start by noticing both are from early 2021 — March and July, respectively. This is noteworthy because it was only one year into the exodus. We now have two more years of data, which show it has continued apace, with literally hundreds of thousands of people leaving each successive year.
Additionally, there is no indication there is any “brand new” UCLA study that found what Newsom said it does. If there is, he should present it. The only recent comments from scholars at UCLA on this subject actually suggest the exact opposite. In February, the director of UCLA’s Center for Neighborhood Knowledge acknowledged there was an exodus and said it was because “California now has the highest housing burden — that is, the proportion of income that is going to pay for housing” in the nation. Then, in April, he said the population decline is “largely driven by lower immigration, fewer births and pandemic deaths.” When it comes to people actually leaving the state, though, it is likely because of living conditions.
Other studies on the subject also demonstrate that California has been losing residents for a long time. And a study that came out earlier this month from the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce found that businesses are increasingly leaving as well. The author said, “The Golden State’s luster appears tarnished in recent years.”
The data are clear: Of course there is an exodus from California. Newsom may be a talented orator, but, when it comes to the facts, he plays fast and loose.
Jack Elbaum is a summer 2023 Washington Examiner fellow.
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