Wednesday, September 7, 2022




Over the past week pollster Robert Cahaly’s Trafalgar Group released three polls with results that should tend to encourage Republicans. You can scroll through Trafalgar’s recent poll results here. Trafalgar has posted its methodology here. Each of the poll results reported in tweets below is supported by a summary report that is linked in a given tweet.

In the Georgia Senate race the Trafalgar poll showed Herschel Walker pulling narrowly ahead of incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock (summary here).

In the Washington Senate race the Trafalgar poll showed Republican Tiffany Smiley moving within three points of incumbent Democrat Patty Murray (summary here).

In the New York gubernatorial race the Trafalgar poll showed Republican Lee Zeldin moving within five points of incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul (summary here).

I pause to note the results above because Cahaly’s comment following release of the polls is of general interest. He observes that Trafalgar has seen a big shift in favor of non-incumbents since President Biden announced his student loan giveaway package: “No other issue this cycle has enraged middle and working class voters more than this[.]” And, as the New York Post editorial argues today, the giveaway is actually worse than advertised.

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