Don's Tuesday column

              THE WAY I SEE IT   by Don Polson     Red Bluff Daily News   8/21/2012

Getting with some barbeque, pep talks, polls

Being part of someone’s campaign, as a contributor/barbeque attendee at State Senator and Congressional candidate Doug LaMalfa’s event in Richdale on Sunday, I find the opportunity to rub elbows with fellow supporters and hear party leaders rewarding. Not so rewarding that I and my fellow local Republicans hesitated to get back in our air conditioned car and on the road rather than hobnob, shake hands and enjoy further camaraderie, in nearly-suffocating heat, with folks we met, even some of those very leaders, like Speaker of the House, Republican John Boehner.

His was the big name on the ticket, on a weeks-long circuit to support both freshman candidates, like LaMalfa, as well as incumbents in tight races and even challengers to seated, vulnerable Democrats in another potential Republican wave election. That’s the expectation, anyway; I was right about President Bush’s reelection, wrong about McCain’s chances but vindicated by the 2010 Congressional wave that swept Boehner into the Speaker’s seat.

This is a predominantly Republican county and region of California, with Democrats enjoying rough parity in our incorporated towns but badly outnumbered elsewhere. They have a lock on state government in Sacramento, having bought themselves a successful initiative that authorized one-party budgetary rule. Together with Gov. Jerry Brown, they can all look in their collective mirrors for the source of their problems, and quit fooling themselves that anyone will come to their rescue, bail them out of their financial hole, and open up an imaginary piggy bank of new tax revenue.

California is the domestic version of Greece with entrenched drains on the public trough, like the welfare class, public employee unions and favored corporate and business interests that have their lips firmly sucking on … you get the idea. The vast non-favored business community makes rationally self-interested choices to relocate or expand out-of-state, shed employees or go digital so as to reduce their profile/target for the regulators, inspectors and bureaucrats of the onerous, punitive, vindictive state apparatus. A not-so-funny thing happens in that process: it turns out that those businesses, their expansions, employees or brick-and-mortar shops, once outside California’s borders, are free of Sacramento’s taxes, regulations and mandates.

Anyway, it should be noted by anyone with ears, eyes and observational powers, that California is the precursor for all of America if President Obama and Democrats can hold onto or expand their grip on our federal government. Part of Speaker Boehner’s passionate message was that this election is the most important “choice” election of our lifetimes, carrying with it perhaps the last, best hope for restoring fiscal sanity, economic freedom and Constitutional principles to our nations affairs. I’m paraphrasing without notes or a recording, but I heard what is in my heart and soul about the wrong-headed, nearly-diabolical path to financial ruin, confiscatory taxes and a tidal wave of burdensome, business-and-economy-killing regulations coming our way in a second Obama term.

Democrats seem to have no problems with the executive, nearly imperial, ruler in the White House and his unilateral sidestepping of Congress, prior laws or any other Constitutional restraint on his actions. They should kindly think back to whether they ever indulged their anathema toward President Bush with epithets over the out-of-control “unitary executive” they imagined they saw. On his worst day, Bush never simply cast aside settled law to legalize illegal aliens, illegally void welfare work requirements, harass entire states with the EPA, or political enemies with the IRS.

Speaker Boehner was absolutely confident of holding or expanding the Republican majority in the House, and optimistic for a Republican majority in the Senate to complement President Romney and Vice President Ryan. I don’t think the last two items are “in the bag,” but here are some polling results for those wanting unfiltered-by-liberal-media reality. For the House of Representatives, honest, balanced polls show not only a generic preference for Republicans (“Which party should win?”) but also consistently higher levels of enthusiasm among Republicans than exist for Democrats and their constituent groups, like younger voters.

For the big, brass presidential ring, it is a close race, with the most reputable, reliable pollsters, Gallup (registered voters) and Rasmussen (likely voters), showing Obama and Romney trading the top spot back and forth but within the margin of error. As of Monday, Gallup had Romney holding on to a week long, 2-point lead over Obama, while Rasmussen had Romney returning to a 1-point lead after slipping behind a couple of points. The bad news for Obama is that he is stuck in the 43 to 45 percent range, which guarantees defeat because the “undecideds” don’t typically wind up voting for the incumbent. Right now, Romney gets at least 3 of the 6 swing states (FL, VA, OH, WI, IA, CO), a different 3 depending on the polling; however, any 3 of them are not enough to win 270. Stay tuned.

In the Senate, we need 3 more seats to get 50, giving control to VP Ryan. Holding onto Republican tossup seats, the pickups from Democrats appear to be in MO, ND, WI, possibly also FL and VA. A Romney/Republican wave will result in 53 Republican Senators and solid conservative control.

Correction: Penn State’s Michael Mann was misidentified as Thomas Mann last week.