Romney Ties Obama in Swing States; Gingrich Trails
Gingrich performs worst against Obama in swing states and nationally
PRINCETON, NJ -- Registered voters in 12 key swing states are almost evenly split between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in their 2012 presidential election preferences, while giving a 14-percentage-point lead to Obama over Newt Gingrich. Swing-state voters also prefer Obama to Ron Paul and to Rick Santorum. Registered voters nationally express similar preferences, although Paul does slightly better at the national level than he does in the swing states.
These "swing state" results are from the third USA Today/Gallup Swing States poll, based on Jan. 24-28 Gallup Daily tracking of registered voters in 12 states that will be among the most crucial to winning the 2012 presidential election.
The states include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The national results are based on Jan. 27-28 Gallup Daily tracking of registered voters.
Obama and Romney have been closely matched in each of the three swing-states polls, conducted in October, late November/early December, and now in January. Obama and Romney have also been statistically tied in each of five polls conducted among national registered voters dating back to August.
(use link for chart) http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney-Ties-Obama-Swing-States-Gingrich-Trails.aspx
The Obama-Gingrich matchup was not included in the October swing-states or national poll, but in late November/early December, Gingrich was slightly ahead of Obama in the swing states, while trailing by six points nationally. Now, Gingrich's position has worsened on both fronts, as the former House speaker trails the president by 14 points in the swing states and by 12 points nationally.
(use link for chart) http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney-Ties-Obama-Swing-States-Gingrich-Trails.aspx
The late January polling marks the first time Gallup has measured Obama against Paul and Santorum in the swing states, and the president leads each by a margin of seven points. Nationally, Paul does slightly better, trailing Obama by only three points. Santorum's deficit to Obama nationally is essentially the same as his deficit in the swing states.
Romney Almost Back to Even With Gingrich Among Republicans Nationally
Gallup Daily tracking of national Republican registered voters' preferences from Jan. 24-28 shows that Gingrich and Romney are now essentially tied, with Gingrich at 28% and Romney at 26%. This is the latest development in a race whose lead has swung back and forth several times over the last two months. Gingrich had previously moved back into the top position after strong debate performances and securing a 12-point win in the South Carolina primary.
Prior to that, Romney had led by as much as 24 points, which itself followed as much as a 15-point Gingrich lead in early December.
Polls in Florida show Romney with a substantial lead going into that state's Jan. 31 primary, and a Romney win there would likely bolster his standing among Republicans nationally.
Republicans More Likely to Be Extremely Enthusiastic About Voting Next November
Republicans remain slightly more enthusiastic about voting for president in this year's election than are Democrats or independents -- both in swing states and nationally.
Republicans are particularly more likely than the other two groups to say they are "extremely" enthusiastic about voting, although Democrats make up most of the difference by being more likely than Republicans to say they are "very" enthusiastic.
Bottom Line
Gallup trial heats for the 2012 general election between Obama and Romney have consistently shown a close race across five national polls conducted in August, September, October, December, and now in January, as well as in three swing-state polls conducted since October. Thus, even as Republican voters' support for various candidates for their party's nomination has fluctuated substantially, the preferences of all registered voters for Obama or Romney nationally and in key swing states have remained quite stable.
In contrast to Romney's stable positioning against Obama, Gingrich's strength in swing states and nationally has deteriorated since late November/early December. Obama now leads Gingrich by double-digit margins in both. Additionally, Gallup Daily tracking of national Republican preferences for their party's nominee over the weekend shows Gingrich's lead over Romney slipping, with the two nearly back to a tie.
These results, coupled with Gallup's latest measure of the two candidates' images among Americans, lend support to the Romney camp's argument that Romney is the more electable of the two.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney-Ties-Obama-Swing-States-Gingrich-Trails.aspx
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The states include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The national results are based on Jan. 27-28 Gallup Daily tracking of registered voters.
Obama and Romney have been closely matched in each of the three swing-states polls, conducted in October, late November/early December, and now in January. Obama and Romney have also been statistically tied in each of five polls conducted among national registered voters dating back to August.
(use link for chart) http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney-Ties-Obama-Swing-States-Gingrich-Trails.aspx
The Obama-Gingrich matchup was not included in the October swing-states or national poll, but in late November/early December, Gingrich was slightly ahead of Obama in the swing states, while trailing by six points nationally. Now, Gingrich's position has worsened on both fronts, as the former House speaker trails the president by 14 points in the swing states and by 12 points nationally.
(use link for chart) http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney-Ties-Obama-Swing-States-Gingrich-Trails.aspx
The late January polling marks the first time Gallup has measured Obama against Paul and Santorum in the swing states, and the president leads each by a margin of seven points. Nationally, Paul does slightly better, trailing Obama by only three points. Santorum's deficit to Obama nationally is essentially the same as his deficit in the swing states.
Romney Almost Back to Even With Gingrich Among Republicans Nationally
Gallup Daily tracking of national Republican registered voters' preferences from Jan. 24-28 shows that Gingrich and Romney are now essentially tied, with Gingrich at 28% and Romney at 26%. This is the latest development in a race whose lead has swung back and forth several times over the last two months. Gingrich had previously moved back into the top position after strong debate performances and securing a 12-point win in the South Carolina primary.
Prior to that, Romney had led by as much as 24 points, which itself followed as much as a 15-point Gingrich lead in early December.
Polls in Florida show Romney with a substantial lead going into that state's Jan. 31 primary, and a Romney win there would likely bolster his standing among Republicans nationally.
Republicans More Likely to Be Extremely Enthusiastic About Voting Next November
Republicans remain slightly more enthusiastic about voting for president in this year's election than are Democrats or independents -- both in swing states and nationally.
Republicans are particularly more likely than the other two groups to say they are "extremely" enthusiastic about voting, although Democrats make up most of the difference by being more likely than Republicans to say they are "very" enthusiastic.
Bottom Line
Gallup trial heats for the 2012 general election between Obama and Romney have consistently shown a close race across five national polls conducted in August, September, October, December, and now in January, as well as in three swing-state polls conducted since October. Thus, even as Republican voters' support for various candidates for their party's nomination has fluctuated substantially, the preferences of all registered voters for Obama or Romney nationally and in key swing states have remained quite stable.
In contrast to Romney's stable positioning against Obama, Gingrich's strength in swing states and nationally has deteriorated since late November/early December. Obama now leads Gingrich by double-digit margins in both. Additionally, Gallup Daily tracking of national Republican preferences for their party's nominee over the weekend shows Gingrich's lead over Romney slipping, with the two nearly back to a tie.
These results, coupled with Gallup's latest measure of the two candidates' images among Americans, lend support to the Romney camp's argument that Romney is the more electable of the two.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney-Ties-Obama-Swing-States-Gingrich-Trails.aspx
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