Don's Tuesday Column

                THE WAY I SEE IT   by Don Polson  Red Bluff Daily News   7/07/2020

Data on COVID; salute to Trump’s speech

First, some COVID-19 numbers; then a salute to President Trump’s Mount Rushmore speech, showing his winning strategy by reflecting the patriotic mood of the Silent Majority.

A “Walker, Texas Ranger” episode, “Rodeo,” featured a line that applies now. Walker and his prosecutor partner warned the last living witness in a trial, a bull rider, that the bad guy “could kill you.” He replied with some uncommon common sense: “Well, so could the bull I’m about to go ride but you know life doesn’t come with any guarantees.” Getting behind the wheel of a car involves risk, as does walking out your front door, but we don’t empty our highways or cower in our beds, do we?

The declining risks most of us face from the Wu-flu: First, less than 2 percent—nursing home and assisted living occupants—account for around 40 percent of the deaths. Those over 70 are about 20 percent of the population but account for around 80 percent of the deaths. The Northeast states around New York account for almost half (65,141) of the 132,569 deaths (as of Sunday, www.worldometers.info/coronavirus); if you are under 70 and don’t live in that northeast area, your risk of dying is reduced dramatically.

In “Modelers Were ‘Astronomically Wrong’ in COVID-19 Predictions,” “Stanford University's disease prevention chairman (Dr. John Ioannidis) slammed using statewide lockdown measures as a response to the coronavirus, saying they were implemented based on bad data and inaccurate modeling…[The results of over 50 studies] suggest that about 150-300 million or more people have already been infected, far more than the 10 million documented cases.” There may be 30-60 million total infected people in the U.S.

That means the mortality is a fraction of the current estimate and that no rising deaths should be expected. While known Wu-flu infections have soared from 22,000 to almost 50,000 per day, the deaths have dropped since April from 2,200 to around 500 per day. Nearly 8,000 people die per day from all causes; COVID-19 deaths primarily affect the elderly.

California loses about 210,000 people from all causes each year; Wu-flu infections rose but deaths have remained around 60 per day; Oregon officials express alarm over their rising cases but deaths average 2 to 3 per day. “For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05%-0.3%. For those above 70, it escalates substantially” (Dr. Ioannidis).

A chart from the CDC, titled “Weekly counts of deaths by age group,” backs that up (posted at “Will a Covid Vaccine Be Rushed to Market?” Powerlineblog.com). Each age group (under 25, 25-44, 45-64, and so on) shows some rise in weekly deaths over the 2015-2019 average: nearly zero (for under 25 and 25-44), with spikes in April for the other groups. All groups have now reverted to normal weekly rates of death, the oldest segments naturally having the highest rates.

Bottom line: The largest demographic—prime working-, family-, and school-age people, outside the northeast states, particularly outside the urban areas of the remaining states—has a risk of infection and death from the Wu-flu that’s marginal, even negligible.

The way I see it, nearly all social, religious and economic restrictions could be lifted, allowing for life to return to pre-Coronavirus normal with prudent distancing and masks where appropriate. We in the 70+ group don’t need to be restricted beyond our own sense of vulnerability, avoiding crowds and having masks at the ready.

News media obsess over “big numbers” of cases and deaths but avoid (intentionally, to keep people anxious) the low per capita death rates in America. They shamelessly tout “rising new cases,” ignoring the mass, unprotected protests, and the fact that testing produces (generally) benign, asymptomatic cases. Let “data,” not fear, guide us to restore our nation’s vitality, strength and normalcy.

Note that, of the world’s 4,517,484 “Currently Infected Patients,” (worldometers.info) about 1 percent are “Serious or Critical” while 99 percent are “in Mild Condition,” just like Trump said in his speech. Also, Henry Ford Medical Group tested 2,541 patients, finding that hydroxychloroquine saved the lives of about 13 percent; that means that if it had been given to all COVID-19 patients, about 17,000 would be alive (BREAKING: ‘Trump Drug’ Hydroxychloroquine Significantly Reduces Death Rate From COVID-19,” thenationalpulse.com).

When “Russian bounties offered for dead Americans” broke, it was uncorroborated, unsourced, unconfirmed, and inconclusive—a hoax. A minor intelligence functionary couldn’t persuade his peers and superiors of his story, so he “leaked” (illegally) to New York Times to gin up yet another phony scandal.

 Lies about Trump’s speeches: Trump gave a “dark speech,” “stoked a culture war,” “delivered a divisive message,” “pushed racial division,” “exploits social divisions.”

Truthful headlines: “Trump gives America a history lesson at Mount Rushmore,” “A Magnificent Speech,” “Trump’s finest speech—and a press that beclowns itself in boiling hate,” “Trump Eviscerates the ‘Webb of Lies’ Behind the ‘Angry Mob,’ Defends Mount Rushmore.” In perhaps the most incisive take: “We Are Living In Parallel Universes: Ted Cruz Unloads On NYT Over Rushmore Speech Coverage.”

Wall Street Journal: “President Trump delivered one of the best speeches of his Presidency… The chorus of independent media voices understands that Mr. Trump is trying to rally the country in defense of traditional American principles that are now under radical and unprecedented assault.

“Dark? In most respects Mr. Trump’s speech was a familiar Fourth of July ode to liberty and U.S. achievement that any President might have delivered in front of an American landmark. ‘No nation has done more to advance the human condition than the United States of America. And no people have done more to promote human progress than the citizens of our great nation,’ he said.”

Hip, Hip, Hooray!