Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush speaks during a Long Island Association luncheon with LIA President and CEO Kevin S. Law at the Crest Hollow Country Club on Feb. 24.
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Former governor of the largest swing state. Scion of a famous political family. Darling of the Republican donor class.
Should he decide to enter the 2016 presidential fray, Jeb Bush will bring a pedigree few Republicans can match. But does he excite? Does mention of his name stir the souls of Republican voters? Is there a rank-and-file clamor for him to jump in?
Our new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll casts some light on these questions, and isn’t great news for the many Republican elites pining for another Bush presidential campaign.

More In WSJ/NBC News Poll

For one, Mr. Bush enjoys little of the goodwill his older brother, George, did in the lead up to his 2000 presidential campaign. Among Republicans—and particularly motivated ones—the former Florida governor lags likely competitors such as Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky. And he can’t hold a candle to the warmth Hillary Clinton summons among her partisans—to say nothing of young voters, women and Hispanics.
First, let’s look at Mr. Bush’s standing overall compared to his brother’s at a comparable moment. In September 1997—seven months more distant from the 2000 election than Jeb Bush is now from the next one—nearly 30% of Americans viewed George W. Bush positively, compared to a sliver—just 15%–who saw him negatively.
By the end of 1998, George Bush’s numbers were downright stellar: 53% positive, just 9% negative. (Two years out from their 2008 matchup, meanwhile, both Barack Obama and John McCain were also both in comfortably positive territory in a WSJ/NBC poll in December 2006.)
Today—in part because the Bush name overall has taken a beating—Jeb Bush is in a position quite the opposite of that. Nearly a third of Americans hold a negative view of him, while just 21% have a positive view. Around a third hold no opinion either way, and the others don’t know.
Many Republicans now beating the drum for a Jeb Bush run are mortified that Mr. Paul, the unorthodox libertarian, might emerge as the GOP standard bearer in 2016.
The WSJ/NBC poll gives Mr. Paul a slight edge on the sentiment front among the population overall, as well as among all Republicans. But Mr. Paul’s advantage grows much wider among Republicans who say they have a high interest in the November election. Among those more animated partisans, Mr. Paul is seen positively by 58%, compared to 44% for Mr. Bush.
Mr. Bush’s climb looks all the steeper when you look at Mrs. Clinton’s numbers. Within her own party, the former first lady and secretary of state is almost universally liked: 77% of Democrats see her positively, almost twice the warmth Mr. Bush receives within the GOP.
Her positive ratings are also striking among voters under 34, Hispanics and women, the three slices of the electorate that drove President Obama’s two presidential victories.
And how does Mr. Bush stack up among those groups? He is under water by 21 percentage points among young voters, 29 points among women, and 5 points among Hispanics.
At the least, his road to the White House would be far more daunting than the one taken by his brother.