Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Swapping Prisoners with Terrorists

Swapping Prisoners with Terrorists
Obama’s disastrous policy dates back to his earliest days in office.
By Andrew C. McCarthy

Don's Tuesday Column

THE WAY I SEE IT   by Don Polson  Red Bluff Daily News   2/03/2015

Liberalism gets people killed

The line, “I don’t like you ‘cause you’re gonna get me killed,” from the 1987 cop buddy movie “Lethal Weapon,” summarizes what many of us have concluded about the liberal/leftist/progressive ideological movement that is embedded in much of academia, news media, the Democrat party and even some Republican circles. This includes the obsession with “political correctness” in immigration, Islamic terrorism, crime, gun rights and disease prevention.
The Danny Glover cop character, nearing retirement, was pithily expressing his aversion to being teamed with a suicidal Mel Gipson cop, oblivious to the endless risks he puts himself and his partner in while chasing bad guys. It carries over into current crises facing America. Reticence by a leftist Obama and his liberal mouthpieces to factually state that terrorists, inspired by Islam and gaining conquered territory, have as their sole, religiously-inspired goal, to kill or subjugate all infidels (hint: America remains “the Great Satan). Such reticence and aversion encourages their killing tactics.
Wrong-headed and soft-hearted crime fighting and punishment policies, under liberal influence, get thousands of citizens killed by thugs who no longer fear punishment, or who know the police are becoming risk-averse to aggressively confronting urban violent crime. Progressive-inspired anti-gun ownership policies and legal measures effectively get many people killed who would, left to their own decision-making about self defense, properly and legally own and carry guns.
In another example, the measles outbreak making headlines has been traced in recent analysis to come “from overseas,” which I translate as having a connection to not just people visiting Disneyland from distant foreign countries, but also young border-crossers from Central America over the last year. I wrote a couple of columns last fall on the wide-open health risks of blindly accepting unscreened children and youths walking into America.
I cited reputable sources concerned about “the deadly, debilitating Enterovirus, EV-D68” brought here “via the many tens of thousands of illegal alien children that, with no small encouragement from Obama’s agencies and policies, flagrantly flooded our borders.” Neil Munro (DailyCaller.com) wrote, “Obama’s Border Policy Fueled Epidemic, Evidence Shows” and Scott Johnson (Powerlineblog.com) wrote numerous pieces on “The Case of the Mystery Virus.” I wrote that “It is no longer a case of ‘coincidence doesn’t prove causation’ but rather ‘reasonable suspicion,’ close to ‘probable cause,’ that diseases known and medically identified to exist in Central American countries, accompanied those children to American cities.”
Virologyj.com posted a paper titled “Human rhinoviruses and Enterovirus in influenza-like illness in Latin America.” Internist Dr. Foley wrote, “there is a deafening silence on the part of public health officials and the mainstream media in even speculating about this association. This is not a simple case of being politically selective about the news, it is downright dangerous and could be just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the emergence of diseases long absent from daily life in America…”
Get it? A disease “long absent from daily life in America,” is the definition of the measles outbreak in the news. Compounding the outbreak is the aversion—often in the more liberal, generally affluent areas of America—to having children receive the immunizations that the medical scientific authorities strongly recommend to keep scourges like measles a tragic part of our past. Infections numbered in the tens, even hundreds, of thousands with deaths in the thousands before inoculations became routine, often in schools without the slightest hesitancy on the part of parents. They would have personally seen the devastation of childhood contagious diseases under the pre-vaccination regimen.
Much lip service is wasted trying to thread the public relations needle between the importance of getting children vaccinated and the free will of parents to use their own best judgment in making their children’s health decisions. I’m having none of it. As this anti-vaccination belief and mentality is reported highest among affluent liberals, you could make a reasonable case that this segment of Americans are the most likely be critical of those on the right for supposedly being anti-science. It’s a tired and phony trope; such people are hypocrites when faced with genuine scientific certainty over protecting children’s health from contagious diseases.
 One could argue that such expressions of free will, as the “anti-vax-ers” profess, doesn’t endanger vaccinated children when such children are kept out of circulation. However, as the measles outbreak now indisputably demonstrates, the protections afforded by being surrounded by vaccinated children become meaningless when such non-vaccinated kids circulate among those from foreign, even underdeveloped, countries—including illegal immigrants passively carrying virological threats attending, say, Disneyland.
So, when prominent, effectively anti-science, liberals spread disproved assertions of autism from vaccinations, and anecdotal instances of bad reactions, they may well be getting people killed as assuredly as their liberal policies are complicit in criminal violence, Islamic terrorism, and deaths preventable by gun ownership. Yes, liberalism does get people killed.

Illegal immigrants released from custody committed 1,000 new crimes

Illegal immigrants released from custody committed 1,000 new crimes

 - The Washington Times
One thousand of the 36,000 illegal immigrant criminals the government released in 2013 have gone on to commit other crimes, including child sex abuse, hit-and-run and child cruelty, according to new data released Friday evening by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley.
The information, which the Homeland Security Department provided to Mr. Grassley, details all 1,000 convictions including dozens of drunk-driving convictions, drug offenses and weapons convictions. But the more serious crimes include domestic abuse, carjacking and aggravated assault.
One of the illegal immigrants, identified as No. 960, was subsequently convicted of inflicting injury on a domestic partner; child cruelty, with the possibility of injury or death; probation violations; speeding; driving without a license; and failing to appear for court.
"The Obama Administration claims that it is using 'prosecutorial discretion' to prioritize the removal of criminal aliens from this country. But this report shows the disturbing truth: 1,000 undocumented aliens previously convicted of crimes who the Administration released in 2013 have gone on to commit further crimes in our communities," Mr. Grassley said.
The information comes just a month before Mr. Obama begins taking applications for the new amnesty he announced in November, which would allow up to 4 million illegal immigrants to apply for a stay of deportation and for work permits to be able to compete legally for jobs.
The 1,000 illegal immigrants in the data were part of a group of 36,000 convicted criminals that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement had been holding but decided to release in 2013.
Those illegal immigrants had amassed nearly 88,000 convictions among them, including 193 homicide convictions, 426 sexual assault convictions, 303 kidnapping convictions and 16,070 drunk- or drugged-driving convictions.
At the time, ICE officials said some of the releases were required by a federal court decision that prevents them from holding illegal immigrants whose home countries won't take them back. The government said three-quarters of those convicted of homicide had to be released under court guidelines.
Mr. Grassley this week introduced a bill to change the law and overturn the court decision.

Monday, February 2, 2015

2014 WAS ONE OF THE 3% COLDEST YEARS IN THE LAST 10,000


Climate alarmists play a number of tricks to try to make their catastrophic anthropogenic global warming theory seem plausible. One of the most important is that they focus on a ridiculously short period of time, beginning either in the late 19th century or at the beginning of the 20th. This is, of course, not even the blink of an eye in geologic time. Given that the Earth began emerging from the Little Ice Age in the mid to late 19th Century, it is hardly surprising–and a very good thing–that from then until now, temperatures have tended to rise.
Alarmists shriek that 2014 was the warmest year ever! But that claim is absurd if put in the context of the Earth’s recent history. As Dr. Tim Ball writes:
In fact, 2014 was among the coldest 3 percent of years of the last 10,000, but that doesn’t suit the political agenda.
This chart shows Northern Hemisphere temperature changes over the last 10,000 years, based on ice core data. Dr. Ball explains: “The red line, added to the original diagram, imposes the approximate 20th century temperatures (right side) against those of the last 10,000 years.”
clip_image0211
If the Earth continues to be warm, temperatures will be more nearly aligned with what they have generally been over the last 10,000 years.
There are many other problems with global warming alarmism, of course, and Dr. Ball touches on several of them. For one, the quality of the surface temperature record is terrible, nowhere near good enough to support the alarmists’ claims of precision. For another, the surface temperature record has been corrupted. The records are maintained by alarmist organizations, which have repeatedly “adjusted” historical data to make the past look cooler and the present warmer. This is one of many examples; it relates to New Zealand, where historical temperature records have been “adjusted” by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research:
clip_image0082
Typically these adjustments are carried out surreptitiously, and only come to light when someone comes across contemporaneous temperature records from, say, the 1930s, and finds that the temperatures reported at the time are different from the ones now claimed by the same agencies. If you are willing to spend many billions of dollars, as the world’s governments are, you can buy a lot of rewriting of history.
So next time one of your liberal friends tells you that 2014 was the hottest year on record, and therefore we must turn what is left of our economy over to the Obama administration, you can tell him that actually, 2014 was one of the 3% coldest years of the last 10,000.

Our Mushrooming Welfare State

Our Mushrooming Welfare State 
Americans’ slipping into government dependency is becoming increasingly difficult to reverse. 
(Illustration: NRO)

 




America’s national character will have to be changed if progressives are going to implement their agenda. So, changing social norms is the progressive agenda. To understand how far this has advanced, and how difficult it will be to reverse the inculcation of dependency, consider the data Nicholas Eberstadt deploys in National Affairs quarterly:
America’s welfare state transfers more than 14 percent of GDP to recipients, with more than a third of Americans taking “need-based” payments. In our wealthy society, the government officially treats an unprecedented portion of the population as “needy.”
Transfers of benefits to individuals through social-welfare programs have increased from less than one federal dollar in four (24 percent) in 1963 to almost three out of five (59 percent) in 2013. In that half-century, entitlement payments were, Eberstadt says, America’s “fastest growing source of personal income,” growing twice as fast as all other real per-capita personal income. It is probable that this year, a majority of Americans will seek and receive payments.
This is not primarily because of Social Security and Medicare transfers to an aging population. Rather, the growth is overwhelmingly in means-tested entitlements. More than twice as many households receive “anti-poverty” benefits than receive Social Security or Medicare. Between 1983 and 2012, the population increased by almost 83 million — and people accepting means-tested benefits increased by 67 million. So, for every 100-person increase in the population there was an 80-person increase in the recipients of means-tested payments. Food-stamp recipients increased from 19 million to 51 million — more than the combined populations of 24 states.
What has changed? Not the portion of the estimated population below the poverty line (15.2 percent in 1983; 15 percent in 2012). Rather, poverty programs have become untethered from the official designation of poverty: In 2012, more than half the recipients were not classified as poor but accepted being treated as needy. Expanding dependency requires erasing Americans’ traditional distinction between the deserving and the undeserving poor. This distinction was rooted in this nation’s exceptional sense that poverty is not the unalterable accident of birth, and is related to traditions of generosity arising from immigrant and settler experiences.
Eberstadt’s essay, “American Exceptionalism and the Entitlement State,” argues that this state is extinguishing the former. America “arrived late to the 20th century’s entitlement party.” The welfare state’s European pedigree traces from post-1945 Britain, back through Sweden’s interwar “social democracy,” to Bismarck’s late-19th-century social insurance. European welfare states reflected European beliefs about poverty: Rigid class structures rooted in a feudal past meant meager opportunities for upward mobility based on merit. People were thought to be stuck in neediness through no fault of their own, and welfare states would reconcile people to intractable social structures.
Eberstadt notes that the structure of U.S. government spending “has been completely overturned within living memory,” resulting in the “remolding of daily life for ordinary Americans under the shadow of the entitlement state.” In two generations, the American family budget has been recast: In 1963, entitlement transfers were less than $1 out of every $15; by 2012, they were more than $1 out of every $6.
Causation works both ways between the rapid increase in family disintegration (from 1964 to 2012, the percentage of children born to unmarried women increased from 7 to 41) and the fact that, Eberstadt says, for many women, children, and even working-age men, “the entitlement state is now the breadwinner of the household.” In the last 50 years, the fraction of civilian men ages 25 to 34 who were neither working nor looking for work approximately quadrupled.
Eberstadt believes that the entitlement state poses “character challenges” because it powerfully promotes certain habits, including habits of mind. These include corruption. Since 1970, Americans have become healthier, work has become less physically stressful, the workplace has become safer — and yet there has been an almost six-fold increase in claims from Social Security Disability Insurance. Such claims (including fraudulent ones) are gateways to a plethora of other payments.
Daniel Patrick Moynihan, a lifelong New Deal liberal and accomplished social scientist, warned that “the issue of welfare is not what it costs those who provide it, but what it costs those who receive it.” As a growing portion of the population succumbs to the entitlement state’s ever-expanding menu of temptations, the costs, Eberstadt concludes, include a transformation of the nation’s “political culture, sensibilities, and tradition,” the weakening of America’s distinctive “conceptions of self-reliance, personal responsibility, and self-advancement,” and perhaps a “rending of the national fabric.” As a result, “America today does not look exceptional at all.”
— George Will is a Pulitzer Prize–winning syndicated columnist. © 2015 The Washington Post
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/396875/our-mushrooming-welfare-state-george-will

Resist the Lynch Nomination

Resist the Lynch Nomination

By The Editors

Sunday, February 1, 2015

David Gregory and Why Law Is Only for the Little People

David Gregory and Why Law Is Only for the Little People 
The well-connected and powerful escape regulation that ensares the less fortunate. 



 


As with most prissy, arcane regulations, laws that are designed to regulate the functionality of firearms tend instead to serve as an invitation to caprice. Herewith, a report from William Jacobson on the Extraordinary Tale of NBC’s David Gregory:
The short version is that the D.C. Metropolitan Police Department warned NBC News that it could not possess an actual high-capacity magazine, but NBC News went ahead and did it anyway. The MPD recommended a warrant for Gregory’s arrest, but that request was nixed by the D.C. Attorney General Irvin Nathanbecause — my paraphrase — Gregory was just too nice a guy and had no other criminal intent.
That attitude stood in stark contrast to the D.C. Attorney General’s vigorous prosecution of other lesser-known people who also were nice people and had no other criminal intent, but violated D.C.’s gun laws.
I do not intend to reiterate here just how extraordinarily difficult it is to execute laws that aim to track pieces of unserialized metal. Nor, for that matter, will I attempt to lay out what any earnest attempt to do so would end up doing to privacy rights in the United States. Rather, I want to focus on the grossly unequal manner in which such rules will inevitably be enforced, and to examine also what this does to the notion of equal protection. From my perspective, the startling thing about the Gregory affair is not so much that the powers-that-be eventually declined to prosecute him for his transgression, but that he was so unfailingly sure that he would be allowed to break the law without consequences. In a vacuum, it is easy to make the case that there was no need to indict NBC for its crime. Indeed it is difficult to imagine a set of circumstances in which doing so could be considered a good use of the city’s time and resources. But the entitled nonchalance with which Gregory presumed that his behavior would be ignored should worry all of us.
Can we honestly presume that your average pro–Second Amendment protester would have been afforded such latitude? Imagine, if you will, that a Gadsden-flag-wrapped NRA member from Dryden, N.Y., takes to a podium to denounce that state’s SAFE Act and, shouting about tyranny and the Founders, holds aloft a 30-round Magpul magazine — in full view of the authorities. Does he get away with it? I’m not so sure that he does. Nor, for that matter, am I convinced that such latitude would be conferred upon someone who, unlike Gregory, was genuinely unaware that the rules had changed. Indeed, in March of last year, the very same government that let Gregory go secured the conviction of a D.C. resident named Mark Witaschek. Why? Well, because Witscheck had been found in possession of an “antique replica muzzleloader bullet” that wasn’t even live. Witaschek, theWashington Times’s Emily Miller records, had been on a hunting trip outside of the district, and he brought back as “souvenirs” an expended shotgun shell and a copper bullet that lacked both the gunpowder and the primer that are necessary to use it. Although Witaschek did not possess a firearm in the city — and although the ammunition could not possibly be fired — authorities in D.C. spent two yearsprosecuting him.
Witaschek was not alone. A year earlier, the District had prosecuted a visiting soldier from Kentucky after 9mm ammunition was found in his bag. “I have plenty of bags with random ammo in them,” Specialist Adam Meckler complained. “It never crossed my mind to look for them before going into D.C.” Other veterans have been similarly targeted.
Now, none of this is to suggest that the United States is worse off for Gregory’s absolution. Indeed, if I had my way, there would be no legal limits on the size of magazines at all — anywhere, at any time, for any reason. In a free country it is preposterous to see a police department suggesting that a free man should not hold a piece of metal up on television for fear of breaking the law, and it is equally silly that those who are supposed to be in charge of the government are bound by rules that determine how they may best prepare for their defense. But the law is the law, and it has on other occasions been used to prosecute good people for the most benign of infractions. In Gregory we have a man who not only violated the rules, but did so on national television after he had been explicitly told not to. What should we take from this?
Explaining its decision, the attorney general noted that Gregory’s “prosecution would not promote public safety in the District of Columbia nor serve the best interests of the people of the District to whom this office owes its trust.” As opposed to, say, the persecution of Mark Witaschek, which saved the republic from certain downfall?
It is customary for conservatives to be told that their politics are the product of “selfishness,” and that their laissez-faire approach to government is the result of an insufficient empathy with those less fortunate than themselves. “It’s all very well for you to oppose gun control and hate-speech laws and to want to limit the size of the state,” we on the right are often told. “But you live in a safe area, you’re unlikely ever to be on the end of serious animadversion, and you are nicely insulated from any of the vicissitudes of the market.” And yet it seems to me that, so often, the exact opposite is the case. If an overzealous agent of the state decided that my insubordinate politics made me a poor parent and that my kids should be taken into custody, I could immediately take to Twitter and scream bloody murder. I would probably benefit from offers of legal representation; I would be easily able to get in touch with my representative; and, at the very least, I would get the chance to explain on NRO why I had been wronged.
Do we imagine that this would be the same for a poor evangelical in Oklahoma, or for a less connected and less empathetic type who perhaps has a few skeletons in her closet? No, almost certainly not. Indeed, a down-and-out sort would be lucky to see her story make it onto a second-tier blog within the month — and, even then, her case would likely be attended by all sorts of qualifications and nuances, designed to cast doubt as to her suitability.
So it is with the regulation of trivialities. David Gregory and NBC News will always find their way around the law. Soldiers returning from duty, naïve hunters, and the politically disfavored, by contrast, will not. “There ought to be a law,” cry the do-gooders — forgetting all the while that laws are for the little people.
— Charles C. W. Cooke is a staff writer at National Review.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/397076/david-gregory-and-why-law-only-little-people-charles-c-w-cooke

If the President Couldn’t Tell a Lie

If the President Couldn’t Tell a Lie


1e708d3e-c165-4560-9695-831d87b59a3b
In the famous 1997 movie comedy “Liar Liar,” actor Jim Carrey plays a lawyer who, as a result of his young son’s birthday wish being magically fulfilled, cannot tell a lie — he can only tell the truth — for 24 hours. Let’s imagine that such a wish forced President Obama to do the same, not for 24 hours, but only during his State of the Union address.
Here is what he said followed by what he would have said if he could only tell the truth.
President Obama (PO): “Six years ago, nearly 180,000 American troops served in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, fewer than 15,000 remain. And we salute the courage and sacrifice of every man and woman in this 9/11 Generation who has served to keep us safe.”
Honest President Obama (HPO): “While I salute the courage of all the Americans who served there, my withdrawal has rendered their sacrifices meaningless. I made it possible for the Islamic State to rise, to control Mosul and other areas of Iraq, and enabled Iran, the most dangerous country in the world, to fill the void we left.”
PO: “The shadow of crisis has passed, and the State of the Union is strong.”
HPO: “The shadow of my crisis has passed. I was re-elected, my approval ratings are stable, and the 2014 elections that held me back from doing whatever I want to do are done with. As regards America and the world, however, the shadow of crisis is probably darker than at any time since World War II. And what I really meant when I said the State of the Union is strong is that the State of the Government is strong. The government controls more of Americans’ lives than ever before.”
PO: “Will we accept an economy where only a few of us do spectacularly well?”
HPO: “I know that in every country in the world only a few do spectacularly well. And as long as some human beings have more ability, work harder, and/or have more luck than others that will always be the case. So why did I ask this pointless question? Because it foments class anger.”
PO: “Will we allow ourselves to be sorted into factions and turned against one another?”
HPO: “In my six years as president it is we Democrats who have sorted Americans into factions — blacks against whites, women against men, and the poor and middle class against those who are richer — more than at any time in American history. How else can a Democrat win an election? If blacks don’t resent whites, women don’t think they are being suppressed by male sexism, and the 99 percent don’t resent the one percent, Democrats will never win an election.”
PO: “In two weeks, I will send this Congress a budget filled with ideas that are practical, not partisan.”
HPO: “Only Republicans’ ideas are partisan, not Democrats’.”
PO: “So tonight, I want to focus less on a checklist of proposals, and focus more on the values at stake in the choices before us.”
HPO: “Actually almost my entire speech is a checklist of proposals.”
PO: “America is number one in oil and gas. […] And thanks to lower gas prices and higher fuel standards, the typical family this year should save about $750 at the pump.”
HPO: “Fracking — which my administration has tirelessly worked against — has made all this possible.”
PO: “These policies will continue to work as long as politics don’t get in the way. […] And if a bill comes to my desk that tries to do any of these things, I will veto it. It will have earned my veto.”
HPO: “When a Republicans pass bills, I call it ‘politics.’ But when I veto those bills, that’s not politics. Once again, thank you, mainstream media!”
PO: “We gave our citizens schools and colleges, infrastructure and the Internet.”
HPO: “That’s what we on the left believe: Whatever you have the government gave you.”
PO: “Too many bright, striving Americans are priced out of the education they need.”
HPO: “Of course, the real problem is the extortionist tuition rates charged by four-year colleges — that we make possible through government-backed student loans.”
PO: “Our diplomacy is at work with respect to Iran, where, for the first time in a decade, we’ve halted the progress of its nuclear program. […] I will veto any new sanctions bill that threatens to undo this progress.”
HPO: “Everyone knows that Iran intends to build a nuclear weapon. Nevertheless, I will do everything I can to postpone confronting Iran and to postpone an Israeli attack on Iran. Then my successor can deal with it.”
PO: “No challenge — no challenge — poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change.”
HPO: “In this case, I actually said something I believe. I really am more preoccupied with what computer models tell us might happen to ocean levels in 50 years than I am with the Islamist threat to the world today.”

This column was originally posted on Townhall.com.

Climate Change’s Instructive Past

Climate Change’s Instructive Past 
Alarmists urging curtailments of liberty to correct the climate should consider two new books. 

 



We know, because they often say so, that those who think catastrophic global warming is probable and perhaps imminent are exemplary empiricists. They say those who disagree with them are “climate change deniers” disrespectful of science.
Actually, however, something about which everyone can agree is that of course the climate is changing — it always is. And if climate Cassandras are as conscientious as they claim to be about weighing evidence, how do they accommodate historical evidence of enormously consequential episodes of climate change not produced by human activity? Before wagering vast wealth and curtailments of liberty on correcting the climate, two recent books should be considered.
In The Third Horseman: Climate Change and the Great Famine of the 14th Century, William Rosen explains how Europe’s “most widespread and destructive famine” was the result of “an almost incomprehensibly complicated mixture of climate, commerce, and conflict, four centuries in gestation.” Early in that century, 10 percent of the population from the Atlantic to the Urals died, partly because of the effect of climate change on “the incredible amalgam of molecules that comprises a few inches of soil that produces the world’s food.”
In the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), from the end of the ninth century to the beginning of the 14th, the Northern Hemisphere was warmer than at any time in the last 8,000 years — for reasons concerning which there is no consensus. Warming increased the amount of arable land — there were vineyards in northern England — leading, Rosen says, to Europe’s “first sustained population increase since the fall of the Roman Empire.” The need for land on which to grow cereals drove deforestation. The MWP population explosion gave rise to towns, textile manufacturing, and new wealthy classes.
Then, near the end of the MWP, came the severe winters of 1309–1312, when polar bears could walk from Greenland to Iceland on pack ice. In 1315 there was rain for perhaps 155 consecutive days, washing away topsoil. Upwards of half the arable land in much of Europe was gone; cannibalism arrived as parents ate children. Corpses hanging from gallows were devoured.
Human behavior did not cause this climate change. Instead, climate warming caused behavioral change (10 million mouths to feed became 30 million). Then climate cooling caused social changes (rebelliousness and bellicosity) that amplified the consequences of climate, a pattern repeated four centuries later.
In Global Crisis: War, Climate Change & Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century, Geoffrey Parker, a history professor at Ohio State, explains how a “fatal synergy” between climatological and political factors produced turmoil from Europe to China. What he calls “the placenta of the crisis” of that century included “the Little Ice Age” (LIA) between the 1640s and the 1690s. Unusual weather, protracted enough to qualify as a change in climate, correlated so strongly with political upheavals as to constitute causation.
Whatever caused the LIA — decreased sunspot activity and increased seismic activity were important factors — it caused, among other horrific things, “stunting” that, Parker says, “reduced the average height of those born in 1675, the ‘year without a summer,’ or during the years of cold and famine in the early 1690s, to only 63 inches: the lowest ever recorded.”
In northerly latitudes, Parker says, each decline of 0.5 degrees Celsius in the mean summer temperature “decreases the number of days on which crops ripen by 10 percent, doubles the risk of a single harvest failure, and increases the risk of a double failure sixfold,” For those farming at least 1,000 feet above sea level this temperature decline “increases the chance of two consecutive failures a hundredfold.”
The flight from abandoned farms to cities produced “the urban graveyard effect,” crises of disease, nutrition, water, sanitation, housing, fire, crime, abortion, infanticide, marriages forgone, and suicide. Given the ubiquity of desperation, it is not surprising that more wars took place during the 17th-century crisis “than in any other era before the Second World War.”
By documenting the appalling consequences of two climate changes, Rosen and Parker validate wariness about behaviors that might cause changes. The last twelve of Parker’s 712 pages of text deliver a scalding exhortation to be alarmed about what he considers preventable global warming. Neither book, however, supports those who believe human behavior is the sovereign or even primary disrupter of climate normality, whatever that might be. With the hands that today’s climate Cassandras are not using to pat themselves on the back for their virtuous empiricism, they should pick up such books.
— George Will is a Pulitzer Prize–winning syndicated columnist. © 2015 The Washington Post
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/395921/climate-changes-instructive-past-george-will